Ashok Mittal, Vice President, Karvy Comtrade sees gold prices to go to about USD 930-940 per ounce range in the near-term. He advices to take positions carefully and keep a close watch on the dollar-rupee movement as well. He feels that USD 85 per barrel would be a good support for crude. “One should use rallies or upticks to sell, and then expect a close towards USD 85 per barrel and then take fresh positions at those levels.” Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Ashok Mittal on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: Do you see gains in gold continue in the coming days as well? A: The way the markets have been moving and the way people have showed concern on the international market overall, most of the people would prefer to move their investments and funds to gold and silver only. So, it will still be all right to invest in gold. We can expect prices to go to about USD 930-940 per ounce range in the near-term. The added advantage for people in Indian markets is that the rupee also has been depreciating a lot. So, the speed that you are looking at – the increase in prices of gold in India is much faster than international prices. One should take positions carefully and also keep a close watch on the dollar-rupee movement as well. Similarly if you look at the MCX levels, we should wait for a small correction – maybe around Rs 200-300 downside from current levels close to Rs 13,700-13,750 per 10 gm because it seems to have gone up. It will touch Rs 14,000 again and cross it once it really picks up momentum. So, if it goes to USD 940-950 then it would be much above the Rs 14,000 level. Q: Do you see it staying above Rs 14,000 per 10 gm? Many people are talking about Rs 15,000 per 10 gm. Is that a level you have in mind as well? A: It might go to Rs 15,000. My concern is actually not more on the levels of gold in the international market, but it is more on the rupee side because the rupee may not depreciate too much, and possibly the RBI may take some action. So, while you might see gold going up in dollar terms, it may not exactly happen the same way in rupee. I have a different view on the rupee and I feel that rupee may not depreciate much. So, if rupee appreciates and then even if gold goes up you may not see it going to Rs 15,000 immediately. But in the medium-term it is quite possible, and we cannot rule it out. Q: We have seen some volatility in crude. Are you looking at some consolidation there? A: I feel that USD 85 per barrel would be a good support. I have been expecting some kind of bounce from those levels. But we will not really see the prices going up significantly higher or very fast. You will see some kind of consolidation happening there as well. I would repeat that the rupee needs to be watched when you are looking at the prices on MCX. But overall, sentiment has definitely changed. People are talking about a slowdown in the global economy, which may affect the demand for heating oil or crude oil. At the same time, I expect the OPEC to reduce production to some extent if they find that prices are falling too much. So, I believe that USD 85 per barrel should not break immediately. We see the same range between USD 85-95 per barrel for some more time before you see some specific movements of another USD 10 per barrel on either side. Nevertheless, as of now it looks a bit weak. So, one should use rallies or upticks to sell, and then expect a close towards USD 85 per barrel and then take fresh positions at those levels. Q: In the agro commodities - are you looking at more declines in spices? A: In the last couple of days the trend has become clear because of arrivals. People have been offloading their stock positions and are expecting better crop let’s say in jeera since sowing starts from November. Demand in the spot market is also a little less than expectation because of festival season. We may see another Rs 300-400 fall in jeera prices from current levels in the NCDEX November contract. Maybe Rs 10,300-10,400 per quintal should be a good level to sell. We then expect Rs 9,800-10,000 per quintal in the coming days.

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