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CEP: U.S. Dollar Rallies Modestly on Lower Jobless Claims
 
(CEP News) - The U.S. dollar rallied briefly on a series of early-morning data Thursday morning.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell back to 461k in the week ending Oct. 11, down from a seven-year high of 498k reached two weeks ago, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday. Initial jobless claims were expected to drop to 470k. Last week's figure was revised down by 1k to 477k.

Furthermore, in another 8:30 a.m. EDT release, the seasonally adjusted U.S. CPI came in flat for the all-items index, while the core index was reported to have risen less than expected, increasing 0.1% in September. Annually, all-items inflation was up 4.9%, and core inflation was up 2.5%. Economists had expected core consumer prices to rise by 0.2% in September, following a 0.2% rise in August and a 0.3% rise in July. The consensus forecast for the all-items index was a 0.1% rise.

Relative to the U.S. dollar, the biggest reaction came against the Canadian dollar when the cross rose 0.0031 on the data to 1.1914. Currently, the U.S. dollar is down 0.0024 on the session to 1.1892 against the Canadian dollar.

HFE chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson wrote that, despite the week-over-week drop in jobless claims, the figures still show a weakened economy and justify a move by the Federal Reserve.

"The weekly data are volatile even without hurricanes, though, and what matters is that the trend is very high indeed, well above the levels prevailing in the 2001 recession before the attacks of 9/11," he said. "Even with the banking crisis easing, the Fed will be under pressure from the macro data to keep cutting rates. A 1.5% funds rate is not accommodative when banks aren't lending."

Regarding other crosses, the cable dropped 0.0014 to 1.7243 on the data, while the EUR/USD held steady. The euro is now up 0.0023 to 1.3523, while the pound sterling is down 0.0010 to 1.7258, both against the U.S. dollar.
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