BLBG: Crude Falls as Shrinking Demand Outweighs Prospect of OPEC Cut
By Alexander Kwiatkowski
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day as weakening fuel demand outweighed prospects of a production cut by OPEC at a meeting this week.
U.S. gasoline consumption has declined for the past six months and China's economy has slowed amid the global financial crisis. OPEC, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will decide on Oct. 24 to lower output by 1 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg survey.
``Demand for oil is the focus of people's minds at present and it doesn't get better,'' said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``A lot of eyes remain focused on China, which is currently experiencing a very public economic slowdown.''
Crude oil for December delivery slid as much as $3.28, or 4.5 percent, to $68.90 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $69.32 as of 12:07 p.m. London time.
The November contract expired yesterday, after declining $3.36 to settle at $70.89 a barrel. Oil futures, which have tumbled 53 percent from July's record of $147.27, are down 21 percent from a year ago.
U.S. gasoline demand dropped 6.4 percent last week from a year earlier, the 26th consecutive weekly decline, a MasterCard Inc. report showed yesterday.
``We have a lot of negative economic data, especially in the U.S. and also in Europe,'' said Andy Sommer, an analyst with HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. ``These are the negatives that are playing on the market.''
OPEC Cut
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may disregard pleas from oil-consuming nations on the brink of recession and cut output this week, a Bloomberg survey showed.
Thirty of 33 analysts surveyed yesterday and today forecast that OPEC will lower production by 1 million barrels a day or more at the meeting in Vienna, which was brought forward from November. That's more oil than Australia consumes. OPEC also may signal plans for an additional reduction of at least 500,000 barrels a day by early 2009.
Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, said it favors a cut of between 2 million and 2.5 million barrels a day. Ministers from Algeria, Libya, and Qatar have said OPEC, which provides 40 percent of the world's oil, will need to trim supplies.
Saudi Arabia, which dominates OPEC proceedings as the group's largest producer, has yet to comment on its intentions.
Supply Glut
OPEC forecasts an excess of supply at the end of the year and start of 2009, the group's Secretary General Abdulla el- Badri told reporters yesterday in Moscow. OPEC will try to balance the market, el-Badri said, adding that it may not be able to achieve this goal on its own.
The U.S. Energy Department will probably report today that oil and gasoline supplies rose last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude oil inventories climbed 2.65 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 17, the fourth straight weekly gain, according to the survey.
``The most critical data point to watch is U.S. implied petroleum demand,'' Credit Suisse Group said today in a research note. ``This has weakened substantially over the last months.'' An increase in inventories would be negative and ``risks are skewed to the downside in our view at least until the OPEC meeting.''
Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as $2.96, or 4.3 percent, to $66.76 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $67.33 as of 12:07 p.m. local time. Prices have fallen 20 percent in the past year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net