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BLBG: South African Rand Poised for Biggest Weekly Decline Since 1975
 
By Garth Theunissen

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's rand headed for its biggest weekly drop in more than 30 years as stocks and commodity prices slumped and investors sold higher-yielding assets on concern the global financial crisis will crimp economic growth.

The rand was poised for its biggest weekly decline since 1975 as South Africa's benchmark equity index fell to the lowest in more than two years. The currency also weakened as gold, South Africa's biggest export, headed for its biggest weekly drop in more than a quarter-century, eroding earnings prospects for the world's biggest producer of precious metals.

``Negative speculative sentiment towards the emerging- market complex is turning the rand into a one-way downward bet,'' said Ian Cruickshanks, head of research at Nedbank Treasury in Johannesburg. ``We're not masters of our own currency.''

The rand fell 3.2 percent to 11.3800 per dollar by 12:13 p.m. in Johannesburg, from 11.0300 yesterday and 10.0126 on Oct. 17, brining the decline this week to almost 14 percent, the biggest five-day drop since Sept. 1975, when the rand plunged 22 percent. Against the euro, the rand slid 9.3 percent in the week to 14.6723.

Emerging-market currencies including the Hungarian forint, Ukraine's hryvnia and South Korea's won have slumped this week as investors cut holdings of higher-yielding assets in favor of safer holdings such as U.S. Treasuries. The MSCI World Index lost 7.7 percent this week, extending its decline this year to 45 percent, as credit-related losses and writedowns topped $660 billion in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Gold, Platinum

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 9 percent in the week while the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index dropped 7.2 percent.

Gold plunged 12.3 percent in the past five days to a one- year low of $687.13, the biggest weekly decline since 1983. Platinum, which rivals gold as South Africa's biggest export earner, fell 11.6 percent in the week to $765.25 an ounce.

``The commodity super-cycle has broken, which automatically translates into weaker export performance,'' said Cruickshanks. ``Commodities are still the backbone of this economy.''

Government bonds fell in the week, with the yield on the benchmark 13.5 percent security due September 2015 adding 62 basis points to 9.92 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Garth Theunissen in Johannesburg gtheunissen@bloomberg.net

Source