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RTRS: Copper drops almost 5 pct dollar, demand worry
 
LONDON (Reuters) - Copper fell almost 5 percent to new 3-year lows on Monday, leading most of the industrial metals lower, on the stronger dollar and concerns over global growth.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down at $3,640 a tonne at 1053 GMT from $3,775 at the close on Friday. It earlier fell 4.9 percent to $3,590, its lowest level since September 2005.

The copper contract last week posted its biggest weekly fall -- more than 20 percent -- since at least 1977, according to Reuters data. It has slumped nearly 60 percent since July's record high of $8,940.

"It should be another volatile, nervy week ahead," said Calyon analyst Robin Bhar. "Already we have had huge volatility across all markets and it's set to continue."

European shares slumped early on Monday, tracking big losses in Asia on intensified fears of a global recession.

China's implied copper consumption rose 5.3 percent in September from the previous month, Reuters calculations using Chinese customs data show, but collapsing prices suggest demand is softer than it appears.

"Implied demand calculations in times like this are pretty meaningless. Those import orders were placed up to a year ago, and it's difficult to believe in the face of these prices that consumption is growing at these rates," a trader in Sydney said.

SUPPLY RESPONSE

Bhar said there has also been very little in terms of output cuts by producers to balance the fall off in demand.

"Producers can be cash negative but if they are making enough to pay debt and finance then they will soldier on.

No-one wants to be the first and historically you don't tend to see cuts for several months. We could go into 2009 before seeing substantial cuts," he said.

Demand concerns and the stronger dollar pushed most of the base metals, except tin, lower, with aluminium hitting a three-year low.

The dollar hit a two-year high against the euro, making dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Aluminium was at $1,945 a tonne from $1,975. The metal, used in power and construction, earlier declined to $1,925, its lowest price since October 2005.

Zinc dropped 6.4 percent to an intra-day low of $1,090 a tonne and was last trading at $1,105. Lead dived as much as 7.9 percent to $1,170, while nickel declined 7.0 percent to $9,300.

However, tin was higher as China stepped up its regulation of the metal and as LME stocks fell to more than three-year lows.

Tin was trading at $12,000, after earlier hitting $12,190, from $11,750 a tonne at the close on Friday.

China, the world's second-largest tin producer, has set new qualifications for tin exporters as part of efforts to tighten sales overseas.

Tin inventories in LME warehouses dropped 500 tonnes to 4,080, the lowest level since July 2005.

Source