BLBG: Dollar to Gain on Oil Decline, Deleveraging, Deutsche Bank Says
By Daniel Kruger
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will gain 8 percent against the euro by the end of 2010 from where it trades now as countries exporting oil and other commodities unwind loans in the U.S. currency, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
The decline in the price of natural resources is forcing countries that had borrowed in the dollar when it was posting double-digit percentage declines versus the euro in 2006 and 2007 to unwind those positions. The current crude oil futures contract has fallen more than 50 percent to $63.03 from a record $147.27 on July 11.
``The near-term call on where euro-dollar stops in my view is really a call on when and will the outflows from emerging markets stop,'' said Bankim Chadha, a New York-based strategist at Deutsche Bank, in an interview. ``The deleveraging process out of emerging markets is taking place, and it suddenly hit some big potholes and then it accelerated.''
The dollar will rise to $1.20 per euro by the end of 2009 and $1.15 by the end of 2010, the firm forecast in a research note today. The yen will appreciate to 92 per dollar by the end of 2009 and 90 per dollar by the end of 2010. The firm had previously forecast the dollar would reach $1.30 per euro, with the yen advancing to 95 per dollar by the end of 2010.
``We will see some moderation there by year-end,'' Chadha said in the interview. ``I have moved my targets, but I haven't really moved them very much.''
The ICE futures exchange's U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six trading partners, rose last week the most in more than four decades as the dollar soared to a two- year high versus the euro and reached its strongest in six years against the pound. A global grab for dollars pushed the index up 22 percent since July 15 to the highest level since April 2006.
A survey dated Oct. 27 of 30 fund managers overseeing $1.45 trillion by Jersey City, New Jersey-based Ried Thunberg & Co. found that 59 percent expect the dollar to strengthen against the euro over the next three months, compared with 71 percent last week.
To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net