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BLBG: Oil Falls as Asian Import Cuts Heighten Demand Slowdown Concern
 
By Mark Shenk

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell as reduced imports by Asian refiners reinforced concern that a demand slowdown is spreading to emerging markets.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's biggest refiner, will process less oil at units because of falling demand, its parent said today. South Korea imported 1.4 percent less oil in October. Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in October at the fastest pace in 26 years as the credit crisis deepened.

``There's negative economic news coming from everywhere,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``The manufacturing number doesn't bode well for future oil demand.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell $2.26, or 3.3 percent, to $65.55 a barrel at 11:23 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which have tumbled 55 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 32 percent from a year ago.

Oil futures declined 33 percent in October, a record monthly drop, on signs that the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe will spread to emerging markets, curbing fuel consumption. The previous record-price decline occurred in February 1986.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 38.9, worse than anticipated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the lowest level since September 1982, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported today.

The U.S. is the world's biggest oil-consuming country. China and South Korea are the second- and ninth-biggest oil consumers.

The European Commission said today that the region's economy probably entered a recession this year and will stagnate in 2009. Members of the European Union are responsible for about 17 percent of global energy consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

OPEC Production

The United Arab Emirates has notified customers that they will receive less crude as a result of OPEC's Oct. 24 resolution to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day, Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli told reporters in Abu Dhabi today.

Iran will reduce crude-oil sales to Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company, by some 70,000 barrels per day, Iranian oil minister, Gholamhossein Nozari, said on Nov. 2. Nigeria's national oil company announced shipment cuts of 5 percent in November and December last week.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, producer of more than 40 percent of the world's crude, is next due to meet on Dec. 17 in Algeria.

`Saudi Intentions'

``OPEC members are beginning to show some commitment to the decision,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Traders will be closely watching for reports on Saudi intentions.''

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, should cut output to 8.94 million barrels a day this month, from 9.45 million barrels a day in September, according to last month's OPEC agreement.

Societe Generale SA cut its 2009 oil forecast for the second time in a month, slashing its outlook for average New York prices 36 percent to $72.50 a barrel. France's third-biggest bank lowered its projection from $114 a barrel in a report today because of tumbling demand.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the ``downside risk'' to its year-end forecast of $70 a barrel for crude oil has increased, amid signs of slowing emerging-market demand. In addition, OPEC is unlikely to fulfill all of its announced production cuts within the next couple of months, Goldman analysts, led by Jeff Currie in London, said in a report today.

Brent crude oil for December settlement declined $2.42, or 3.7 percent, to $62.90 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Source