HS: Aussie drops after aggressive rate cut, bills soar
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar fell on Tuesday, extending losses after the central bank cut interest rates more sharply than expected and said domestic activity and spending was likely to weaken on the back of a sharp global downturn.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 75 basis points to 5.25 percent, a 3-½ year low. Investors had been pricing in an easing of 50 basis points to 5.5 percent, with weak data on Monday backing views that the credit crunch was taking a toll on the Australian economy.
It follows a stunning 100 basis point rate cut last month and comes just days after the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan lowered rates. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also expected to lower rates this week
as they try to stave off the threat of a looming recession in their economies.
'Not surprisingly, the Aussie has taken a hit following the RBA's bigger-than-expected 75 basis point rate cut,' said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
'Ultimately, we see risks skewed toward a move to $0.5500 in an environment where global growth momentum is downward, relative rate differentials are moving
against the Aussie and where inflows especially from Japanese retail investors are drying up.'
By 4:15 a.m. (0515 GMT), the Aussie eased to $0.6638 from $0.6715 before the rate decision and 2.6 percent lower than $0.6816 late here on Monday.
It struck a 5-½ year low of $0.6007 last month but has gained since then on hopes that a raft of rate cuts by major central banks would help the global economy escape a recession.
Those worries re-emerged after a report showed factory output in the United States fall to its lowest in 26 years in October. That weighed on demand for leveraged carry trades.
The high-yielding Aussie fell to 65.52 yen, from 67.67 yen late here on Monday, as investors favoured the relative safety of lower-yielding currencies and government bonds. The Aussie lost 21 percent against the yen over October as investors deleveraged positions amid extreme risk aversion.
Australian bill and bond futures jumped after the RBA decision and dovish statement. December bill futures posted their biggest single-day jump in a month, with investors pricing in chances of another 75 basis points cut in December.
Three-year bond futures rose 0.255 points to 95.675, outperforming the 10-year futures contract which added 0.115 points to 94.715 as investors expected the RBA to continue reducing rates in the near term.
That led to a further steepening in the yield curve.
'Our forecasts continue to imply further steepening of the Australian yield curve,' said Stephen Halmarick, co-head of market economics at Citi.
'Over the first few months of 2009 we also expect a further policy easing, taking the cash rate to a low of 4.0 percent - the lowest rate since the 2-3 percent inflation targeting regime began in 1993.'
---------------(Snapshot at 4:15p.m./0515 GMT)----------------- FUTURES
CASH YIELD 90-DAY BILL (DEC) 95.490(+0.440) 5.54 (5.62) 3-YR BOND (DEC) 95.675(+0.255) 4.31 (4.58) 10-YR BOND (DEC) 94.620(-0.200) 5.29 (5.39) AUD/USD 0.6638 (0.6816) US 10-YR 3.90 (3.96) ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUD VS 2-YR
10-YR *AUD 3-YR/10-YR SPREAD USD +262 (+276) +138 (+142) *FUTURES +0.960 (+0.800) CAD +205 (+231) +148 (+163) *AUD
2-YR/10-YR SPREAD NZD -176 (-142) -86 ( -68) *CASH +122 (+106)