BLBG: U.S. Stocks Advance; MasterCard, ADM, General Electric Rise
By Elizabeth Stanton
Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks advanced in the biggest presidential Election Day rally in 24 years after MasterCard Inc. and Archer Daniels Midland Co. reported better-than- estimated earnings and money-market rates retreated.
MasterCard, the world's second-biggest credit-card company, jumped 12 percent after profit was boosted by higher overseas revenue and interbank lending rates retreated. ADM surged 15 percent as rising commodity prices caused earnings to more than double at the world's largest grain processor. General Electric Co. added 8.3 percent and CIT Group Inc. climbed 30 percent on a report that the Treasury may include financial companies other than banks and insurers in its $700 billion rescue program.
``The market has come to the conclusion that Armageddon is off the table,'' said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $330 billion as chief equity strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York. ``The elimination of the uncertainty of the campaign typically results in an end-of-year rally and you're starting to see that today.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 35.52 points, or 3.7 percent, to 1,001.82 at 11:29 a.m. in New York, its first day above 1,000 since Oct. 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 284.5 points, or 3.1 percent, to 9,604.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 49.26, or 2.9 percent, to 1,775.59. Gains in Europe and Asia sent the MSCI World Index to a sixth straight advance.
Today's gains in the S&P 500 and Dow average were the biggest ever for a presidential Election Day. The NYSE first opened for trading during a presidential vote in 1984. The S&P 500 averaged a 0.3 percent gain on those days since then.
`Big Change'
The winner between Democrat Barack Obama, who leads in national polls, and Republican John McCain must contend with an economy crippled by declining profits and the highest unemployment in five years.
``We keep getting reminded of how bad things are and how we need change, and I'm talking about from both candidates,'' said Michael Holland, New York-based chairman of Holland & Co., which oversees more than $4 billion. ``We're moving forward now.''
Concern economic growth is slowing sent the S&P 500 down 17 percent in October, the steepest monthly loss since 1987. The sell-off erased more than $9.5 trillion from the value of stocks worldwide, almost one-third of the total value wiped out this year, as credit-related losses and writedowns by financial firms approached $700 billion.
The S&P 500 has rebounded about 17 percent since reaching a five-year low on Oct. 27 as global interest-rate cuts and government attempts to shore up banks spurred a 21 percent gain in the index's financial shares.
`Looking to Add'
``There has been some discussion about a post-election rally,'' JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Thomas Lee wrote in a note to clients. ``We have had more than one conversation with investors about what `we will be looking to add' after the elections.''
MasterCard rallied $16.96 to $160.85 after posting third- quarter earnings excluding some items of $2.47 a share, exceeding the average analyst estimate by 11 percent. The company also pledged that expenses won't increase next year.
American Express Co., the largest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, advanced 4.9 percent to $29.70.
ADM gained 20 percent to $25.27. First-quarter profit, excluding some items, was $1.62 a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 72 cents, according to Bloomberg data.
General Electric, whose products range from lightbulbs to power-plant turbines, rose $1.61 to $20.91. CIT Group, a commercial lender, climbed $1.38 to $5.90 for the biggest advance in the S&P 500.
Wider TARP
The Treasury may take equity stakes in non-bank financial companies such as GE, whose GE Capital arm is the largest U.S. non-bank finance company, and CIT Group amid signs the $163 billion it has given to banks in exchange for equity stakes is restoring investor confidence, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Initially, the Troubled Asset Relief Program was intended to buy mortgage-backed securities and other assets for which investor demand has dried up. Funds originally marked for asset purchases may be used to purchase additional equity stakes, the paper said.
Financials also advanced as money-market rates retreated. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for one-month loans slid 18 basis points to 2.18 percent today, the lowest level since November 2004, and the 17th straight decline, according to British Bankers' Association data. The three-month rate dropped 15 basis points to 2.71 percent, the lowest level since June 9, according to BBA figures.
Money-Market Rates
Tokyo's three-month interbank rate slid 9.8 basis points to 0.791 percent, the biggest drop since December 1999, while the three-month rate in euros fell 3 basis points to 4.70 percent, the lowest level since March 25.
Citigroup Inc. climbed 5 percent to $14.69. JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by market value, rose 1 percent to $41.76.
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. climbed 26 percent to $40.30. The transportation services company reported third-quarter earnings per share, excluding some items, that exceeded the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey by 6.9 percent.
Emerson Electric Co. advanced 6.1 percent to $34.54. The world's largest maker of power equipment for oil companies said fiscal fourth-quarter profit rose 10 percent, more than analysts estimated, as it won contracts to provide software that helps manage plants in China and Thailand.
Earnings Watch
Earnings have slumped 8.4 percent on average for the 365 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third-quarter results so far, according to Bloomberg data. Analysts expect full-year profits in the measure to fall 7.7 percent, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
Tenet Healthcare Corp. tumbled 18 percent to $3.36 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The operator of 55 hospitals in a dozen states lowered its 2008 profit forecast because of the slowing economy.
Dean Foods Co. slumped 16 percent to $18.65. The biggest U.S. dairy processor reported third-quarter profit that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
Should either party have an edge in reviving the stock market, history suggests it is the Democrats.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 climbed 9.3 percent in the 12 months after the Democratic Party captured the White House, based on the median change following the election of six Democrats from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Bill Clinton.
Only once did the benchmark for American equities decline, after Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976.
Election Returns
Among the six newly elected Republicans, five -- including Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush -- preceded stock-market declines, with a median retreat of 4.3 percent for the group, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The data excludes incumbents that won re-election.
Overall, the S&P 500 generated a median 62 percent advance from the time a Democrat is elected in November or elevated from the vice presidency until the next president is chosen. For Republicans, the gain is 28 percent.
The S&P 500 dropped farther and faster than any time since the administration of Gerald Ford, losing 38 percent from an all-time high last year through yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net.