BLBG; Oil Falls to 19-Month Low on Concern Slump Is Hurting Demand
By Mark Shenk
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to a 19-month low on signs that fuel demand will contract as the global economy slows.
Oil declined as much as 3.3 percent in New York as the MSCI World Index dropped 2.4 percent. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the global financial crisis may lead to an extended economic slump in the 15 euro nations. More Americans than anticipated filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week, a government report today showed.
``There's no good news on the demand front,'' said Chip Hodge, a managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston, who oversees a $4.5 billion energy-company bond portfolio. ``We overshot moving higher and are doing the same moving lower. Prices could easily move into the $50s for a good while.''
Crude oil for December delivery fell $4.87, or 7.5 percent, to $60.43 a barrel at 11:24 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $60.16, the lowest since March 22, 2007. Prices, which have tumbled 59 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 37 percent from a year ago.
The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points as policy makers tried to contain the damage caused by a recession. ECB officials meeting in Frankfurt reduced the benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent, the second cut in less than a month.
``The market is trying to process the very aggressive rate cut by the Bank of England, and to a lesser extent the ECB,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at MF Global Inc. in New York. ``We will have to see what kind of impact they will have on demand.''
IEA Report
The International Energy Agency said oil-import prices will rebound to average $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2015 and that the threat of a ``supply crunch'' remains. The IEA cut its world oil-demand estimate for 2030 by 10 million barrels a day, to 106 million barrels a day, because of high prices and slower growth, in a summary of its annual World Energy Outlook today.
The agency raised its forecast for the world's energy investment needs from 2007 through to 2030 by more than $4 trillion to more than $26 trillion.
``The IEA report raises worries about future supply,'' said Bill O'Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. ``The credit crunch and price volatility are starting to have an impact on investment and the development of new fields.''
The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates energy policy in 28 developed countries, was set up in 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo.
Brent crude oil for December settlement declined $4.65, or 7.5 percent, to $57.22 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.