BLBG: Canada's Dollar Climbs After Economy Unexpectedly Adds Jobs
By Chris Fournier
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's currency rose for the first time in three days after a government report showed the country unexpectedly added jobs during October.
The Canadian dollar is poised to gain for a second week, rising 3.1 percent since Oct. 31 against its U.S. counterpart. It is the best performer compared with the 16 most-actively traded currencies in the period.
``The employment numbers were respectable,'' said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist with CIBC World Markets in Toronto. ``It seems to have given a bit of a boost to the Canadian dollar, though given the fluctuations we see these days, what we've gained in half an hour we could lose in half an hour.''
The Canadian dollar advanced as much as 2.6 percent to C$1.1671 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.1979 yesterday. It last traded at C$1.1810 at 11:31 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 84.66 U.S. cents.
The economy added 9,500 jobs last month after a gain of 106,900 positions in September, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decrease of 10,000 in October. Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent.
`Canadian Dollar Strength'
``Stronger-than-expected Canadian employment growth caused mild Canadian dollar strength,'' George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note. ``Though the employment report showed unexpected strength, the strength was narrowly based in the public sector.''
Davis predicts that a Canadian dollar close above C$1.1840 would signal the end of the currency's recent rally against the U.S. dollar.
The Bank of Canada cut borrowing costs six times in the past 12 months, lowering its overnight rate to 2.25 percent from 4.5 percent. Policy makers next meet Dec. 9.
Bankers' acceptances futures contracts for March 2009 rose to 1.73 percent from 1.66 percent yesterday, indicating traders have trimmed bets that borrowing costs will fall further.
Canada's dollar has rebounded 8.4 percent since Oct. 28, when it touched C$1.3017, the weakest in more than four years.
``A lot of the gains were front-end loaded, as early in the week we saw commodity currencies doing quite well alongside strong equity markets,'' said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy in Toronto at Scotia Capital Inc., a unit of Canada's third-largest bank. ``We may have averted the worst-case scenario but it's far too late to avoid a protracted economic slowdown.''
U.S. Report
Canada's currency extended its gains after a U.S. government report showed the world's largest economy lost 240,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate climbed from 6.1 percent to 6.5 percent. The U.S. dollar extended its decline against the currencies of six major trading partners after the report, according to the U.S. Dollar Index.
The Stanford University economist who leads the panel that dates economic cycles said there is now no doubt that a recession is under way following today's jobs report.
The committee is waiting to determine the exact start date of a contraction.
``The evidence is more than compelling,'' Robert Hall, who leads the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee, said in an interview. ``It's conclusive, in my personal opinion.''
The yield on Canada's two-year government bond rose as much as 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 1.97 percent. The yield yesterday touched 1.89 percent, the lowest since at least 1989 when Bloomberg records begin. It last traded at 1.95 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 fell 9 cents to C$101.61.
The 10-year note's yield was little changed at 3.74 percent. The price of the 4.25 percent security maturing in June 2018 rose 2 cents to C$104.10.
The 10-year bond yielded 179 basis points more than the two- year security, down from 184 basis points yesterday, when the so- called yield curve was the steepest since May 2004.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net