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AFX: Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar Gains After Commodity Prices Surge (Update)
 
Higher commodity prices are underpinning Australian Dollar (AUD), after base metal prices, gold and oil surged this session following the news of China's stimulus package. Nymex Dec crude futures are up $2.48 at $63.52 while Comex gold futures have rallied over $13 to $747.80. A surge in copper and nickel prices were seen at the Asian open. Still, not all the news is good for commodities with reports that Australia's mining industry has frozen recruitment due to the global slowdown and Rio Tinto will cut Pilbara output by 10 percent with Fortescue planning to cut as well. The housing auction clearance rate still remains soft despite the RBA rate cuts, and the government has had to unveil a $A6 billion rescue package for the car industry. A survey from Access Economics also shows that capital investment in Victoria has already turned negative. The AUD-USD surged from late NY levels around 0.6565 to gap higher to 0.6825 at the early Asian open, trading to a high of 0.6930. AUD-USD has since retreated to 0.6868. Good offers remain at 0.7000 that should continue to temper gains, with good buying building at 0.6600 as the AUD continues to consolidate.

Meanwhile, Firmer commodities have aided Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains today with the news of China's stimulus package sending base metal prices sharply higher today in Asia. In addition, Nymex Dec crude contracts have risen over $2 on the day and Comex gold contracts have rallied over $10 as well. Risk appetite also helped fuel CAD-JPY demand as Asian stocks rallied on the China news, also supporting CAD. USD-CAD, which closed in NY just under 1.1900, dropped to 1.1850 at the early Wellington (NZ) open and continued to decline to 1.1740 lows. The currency has subsequently traded in a 1.1740-1.1832 range, holding at 1.1770 into the London open. In comments at the G-20, BoC Carney saw a Canadian recession as a possibility and is only predicting very marginal growth for 2009. Carney added that the bank is "absolutely symmetrical, we are as much about inflation below that target as above." Canada's Fin Min Flaherty called for practical, pragmatic approaches to the global crisis. Flaherty also noted that only long-term aid for auto plants thought to be sustainable, should be expected. Further support on USD-CAD lies at 1.1670 with resistance ahead of 1.1900, which stalled gains late Friday.

In addition, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is holding firmer after gapping higher at the open, with the clear results from the weekend election one factor behind the gains, with the National party garnering the mandate for the winning coalition. Despite the clear election results, the only other factor behind the gains was the reaction to JPY carry trades and some Asian stock markets to the China stimulus measures which helped bolster NZD-USD and NZD-JPY. The news out of NZ remains subdued with Quotable Value reporting the slump in housing. Looking ahead, data for the week includes Q3 producer prices on Tuesday and the RBNZ financial stability report on Wednesday. The key data for the week will be the BNZ October PMI released on Thursday and Q3 and September retail trade to be released that day as well with recent anecdotal reports from NZ retailers reflecting a sharp slump in sales. NZD-USD gapped from late NY levels of 0.5900 to open just above 0.5950 in Wellington. A high of 0.6022 has been seen with offers at 0.6050 and higher at 0.6100 and 0.6150. Strong NZD-JPY buying has been reported today. Kiwi currently trades at 0.5981 with buyers on dips now to 0.5960.

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