BLBG: Oil Falls on Forecasts of Lower Global Demand, Higher Supply
By Mark Shenk
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to the lowest since March 2007 on speculation that the International Energy Agency will cut its global demand estimate tomorrow and the U.S. will report that stockpiles gained.
The IEA is ``more than likely'' to lower its oil-demand forecast for next year in its next monthly oil report, according to Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka. U.S. crude-oil supplies probably increased for a seventh week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before tomorrow's Energy Department report.
``It's hard to see what will stop this slide,'' said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. ``It's more of the same. The market is moving on continuing economic concerns.''
Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.99, or 3.4 percent, to $57.34 a barrel at 9:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $57.04, the lowest since March 20, 2007. Prices have tumbled 61 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11.
``People are already looking forward to tomorrow's IEA report and it appears that the demand numbers will be revised dramatically downward,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. ``Demand growth will probably be revised down from 700,000 barrels to about 300,000'' barrels a day.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which announced a 1.5 million barrel-a-day supply cut last month to stanch the price drop, may meet again before its next scheduled meeting in December if futures keep declining, Shokri Ghanem, Libya's top oil official, said. OPEC oil ministers and officials are currently holding talks by telephone, he said.
`Flat' Demand
``If the IEA report tomorrow shows flat demand, you can be sure that OPEC will get together before the next scheduled meeting and make further cuts,'' Barakat said.
U.S. crude-oil stockpiles probably increased 1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 7 from 311.9 million the week before, according to the median of 13 analyst estimates before the Energy Department report.
The department is scheduled to release its weekly report tomorrow at 11 a.m. in Washington. The report is being delayed by a day because of yesterday's Veterans Day holiday.
Brent crude oil for December settlement declined $1.66, or 3 percent, to $54.05 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Futures touched $53.98, the lowest since Jan. 30, 2007.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.