MW: Crude futures edge higher ahead of supply data
Traders bet on further cuts by key oil producers; IEA trims demand outlook
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures managed minor gains Thursday morning as traders staked out positions ahead of the latest weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies, finding support from the possibility of further output cuts from key oil producers.
The energy market also digested an updated International Energy Agency forecast in which the Paris-based group again revised lower 2008 and 2009 estimates for oil demand.
"OPEC officials have indicated that the cartel could decide by the end of the month to cut production again in an attempt to raise prices," said analysts at Action Economics.
"However, concerns over the global growth slowdown have weighed more heavily, keeping a lid on oil prices," they said.
Crude for December delivery rose $1.52 cents to $57.68 a barrel in electronic trading on Globex. The contract recovered from the nearly 22-month low of $54.67 a barrel seen early on in the trading session.
As of Wednesday, crude prices were down more than 60% from their record level above $147 hit on July 11. They've lost around 10% in the past two sessions and the steep drop in prices has raised serious concerns among oil producers.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold an emergency meeting in Cairo on Nov. 29, a senior Iranian oil official told Reuters Thursday. The cartel had already been hinting that it would hold a meeting ahead of the scheduled meeting on Dec. 17 in Algeria.
OPEC announced a 1.5 million-barrel reduction to its output quota in October. The cuts began on Nov. 1.
Meanwhile, a report from the IEA fed energy-demand concerns.
In its monthly report Thursday, the IEA said it expects global demand to grow by 120,000 barrels to 86.2 million barrels a day in 2008, down 330,000 barrels from its previous daily forecast. And for 2009, it now sees demand rising 350,000 barrels to 86.5 million barrels a day, which is down 670,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate. Read more.
The IEA dismissed fears about peak oil in its world energy outlook report released Wednesday. But it also said that under-investment could lead to production troubles. See full story.
As President-elect Barack Obama gets ready to take office next year, Big Oil could be the loser and alternative energy the winner as the U.S. looks to grow green collar jobs, but the big drop in oil prices and less pain at the pump may curb talk of a windfall profits tax. See full story.
Supply data ahead
The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies at 11 a.m. Eastern, a day late because of the Veterans Day holiday.
Analysts at MF Global expect the figures covering the week ended Nov. 7 will show a buildup of 1.4 million barrels in crude inventories. They also expect to see increases of 400,000 barrels for distillate supplies and 1 million barrels for motor gasoline.
On average, industry analysts polled by Platts expect to see increases of 1.1 million barrels for crude, 1 million barrels for distillates and 850,000 barrels for motor gasoline.
Also on the Globex, December reformulated gasoline traded at $1.2755 a gallon, up 2.7 cents, and December heating oil added 2.5 cents to $1.8606 a gallon.
December natural-gas futures tacked on 2 cents to $6.425 per million British thermal units.
The EIA also will delay its release of the weekly natural-gas supply data by a day, to Friday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Analysts at IHS Global Insight expect gas in storage to have risen by 40 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 7.