BLBG: Yen Falls on Speculation Central Banks Are Ready to Intervene
By Daniel Kruger and Agnes Lovasz
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell from two-week highs against the dollar and the euro after the Reserve Bank of Australia intervened to support its currency, fueling speculation other central banks may follow suit.
The Japanese currency also declined versus the Australian dollar, after yesterday surging the most in three weeks, as a spokesman at the RBA confirmed purchases of its own currency. Japan's Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa told lawmakers in Tokyo today that abrupt currency moves are ``undesirable'' and a stronger yen hurts domestic stock investors. He said last month Japan may intervene for the first time in four years.
``The yen has partially retraced yesterday's sharp gains driven by heightened fears over the prospect of intervention,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. ``Those concerns were fueled by both the confirmation that the RBA directly intervened in the market overnight to slow the Australian dollar's decline, and by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Nakagawa.''
The yen fell to 95.83 per U.S. dollar at 11:07 a.m. in New York, from 95.01 yesterday. Against the euro, the yen fell 1.1 percent to 120.10 from 118.77.
``Despite the prospect of intervention, the yen remains a buy'' as the slowing global economy drives investors away from higher-yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency, Hardman said. The yen may rise to 90 against the dollar and to between 108 and 110 versus the euro by year-end, he predicted.
The euro traded at $1.2552 from $1.2505 yesterday after earlier falling to a two-week low against the dollar following a government report showing the German economy entered its worst recession in at least 12 years. The 15-nation currency also pared gains against the yen.
`Long Way To Go'
The pound fell to $1.4773, the lowest since June 2002, following comments yesterday by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King that policy makers ``are prepared to cut bank rate to whatever level is necessary'' to make sure inflation hits the central bank's target.
``You're seeing people shy away from taking risk in those currencies and by default the dollar comes back as the winner,'' said Paul McCulley, a managing director at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. ``We've come down very quickly but we have a long way yet to go on the policy rates.''
Talk of intervention ``certainly spurs a weakness in yen, but I think that's a short-term move,'' said Fabian Eliasson, vice president of currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in New York. ``When you see more deterioration and more weakness coming out of the U.S. I think you're going to see yen strengthening.''
Revised Forecasts
The yen rose earlier to a two-week high against the euro, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to divert bailout money from banks sparked cuts in purchases of higher- yielding assets. Paulson said yesterday he plans to use the second half of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP, to help relieve pressure on consumer credit, scrapping a proposal to buy devalued mortgage assets from banks.
The Japanese currency will strengthen to 90 yen per dollar in three months as traders shun higher-yielding assets deemed riskier, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, revising earlier forecasts. The euro will fall to $1.20 per euro in the same period, Goldman said. The previous three-month projection was for the dollar at 112 yen and $1.45 per euro.
``Deleveraging and funding constraints have likely created a new source of foreign-exchange demand and supply,'' a Goldman team analysts led by New York-based Jens Nordvig wrote in a research note. ``We expect deleveraging patterns to continue into year-end, driving the dollar and yen stronger and putting pressure on higher-yielding currencies.''
Australia's benchmark rate is 5.25 percent, while Japan's is 0.3 percent and the U.S.'s is 1 percent.
`Worldwide Recession'
The euro earlier fell on speculation the German report will prompt the European Central Bank to cut interest rates.
``The German GDP figures didn't support the euro and we've had some more bad news for the world economy,'' said LutzKarpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest lender. ``It looks like this is a worldwide recession and the dollar usually gains from this situation. Euro-dollar will go down further.''
The euro fell to $1.2389, the lowest level since Oct. 28. Karpowitz said it may fall to $1.20 by the yearend.
Germany's gross domestic product shrank 0.5 percent in the third quarter after contracting 0.4 percent in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said.
The Australian dollar rose to 63.88 U.S. cents, recovering from an earlier low of 63.60 cents, after an RBA spokesman confirmed the central bank bought its own currency today.
Australian Dollar
``The RBA's intervention is most likely designed to prevent hectic moves in the market,'' said Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange in Tokyo at State Street Bank & Trust Co., a unit of the world's largest money manager for institutions. ``The initial reaction is that people will be reluctant to sell other currencies for yen.''
The Australian dollar has tumbled 36 percent versus the Japanese currency and 26 percent against the greenback in the past three months as the risk of a global recession prompted investors to cut purchases of higher-yielding overseas assets funded in Japan.
The British pound traded below $1.50 for a second day on evidence Europe's second-biggest economy is withering.
The U.K. currency slumped as recruitment firm Morgan McKinley said job vacancies in London's financial-services industry sank 48 percent in October from a year earlier. The currency declined to $1.4807, the lowest level since June 2002, before trading at $1.4914 from $1.4964 yesterday in New York. It traded at 83.63 pence per euro, near a record low of 84.12 pence reached yesterday.
To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net; Agnes Lovasz in London at alovasz@bloomberg.net