BLBG: Pound Slump Suggests `History to Repeat Itself': Chart of Day
By Kim-Mai Cutler and Andrew MacAskill
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound may allow ``history to repeat itself'' by falling to 91 pence against the euro, equal to its all-time low versus the deutsche mark, said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales in London at Mizuho Capital Markets.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the British currency is trading near its lowest level since October 1996 against the deutsche mark, taking the old German currency's value as 1.95583 per euro, the level at which it was replaced in 1999. The pound's declines are also reminiscent of those that preceded the U.K.'s exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM, on Sept. 16, 1992, Jones said.
``There are definite correlations between now and the 1990s,'' Jones wrote in a note to clients today. ``We have rising unemployment, crashing interest rates and inflation beginning to come off. We also have the pound crashing out of bed like it did when it was forced out of the ERM. We are looking for history to repeat itself.''
The pound weakened to a record 85.58 pence per euro today and dropped below $1.50 for a second day, trading as low as $1.4584.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kim-Mai Cutler in London at kcutler@bloomberg.net