Jamal Mecklai, CEO, Mecklai Financial, feels the rupee will gain strength by 2010. "However, before that it will weaken and touch Rs 52 to a dollar. The next six months is going to be very uncertain." Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Jamal Mecklai on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: There is a special report that you have put up in the light of the current crisis about where your technical analysis sees the rupee and what are the fundamentals that are now congregating around the dollar-rupee. Take us through what your analysis tells us for the fate of the rupee in the next six and twelve months? A: What has happened is pretty apparent to everyone and where we stand today is the two major - the trade deficit has been worsening but now with oil having come down dramatically and exports at Rs 48-50 to a dollar are really quite competitive. So we would expect that exports will start picking up. Of course global growth is in trouble which sort of counteracts the competitiveness of the rupee. Therefore, on a fundamental basis, it looks like we are now waiting for the market to start breathing again. The real issue is that the global crisis slowed everything down, so there were no dollars coming in and the rupee collapsed. The financial crisis is over and you do see that. You are beginning to see now that the G-20 has started coming up with – there are no longer emergency measures, there are more structural measures. So while there are still problems in the market, I think people have been able to move forward looking at okay what do we do now going forward. This is a very good sign. Q: What about your technical analysis? A: Technical analysis has done some great things in the past. Right now, it looks the rupee will return to strength by 2010. There is one possible glitch depending on a wave count; they feel that it could even weaken one more time to levels of about Rs 52 to a dollar before strengthening again. So the next six months is going to be very uncertain; people need to watch themselves and go both sides. The difficulty is that options which are the only instrument to use, are very expensive right now. So it is difficult times. You should carry as little risk as possible, and keep your fingers crossed.

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