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RTRS: Copper, aluminium hit 3-yr lows before recovering
 
By Anna Stablum
LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Aluminium and copper touched new
3-year lows before recovering on bargain hunting on Friday, but
another rise in warehouse stocks and concerns over future demand
for industrial metals capped any major advances.
Markets bounced after European stock markets firmed in
volatile trading with mining shares taking the lead on Britain's
main share index, the FTSE 100 .FTSE and many mining companies
were among the ten biggest gainers. .PG.FTSE
London-listed Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Vedanta (VED.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Xstrata
(XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose more than 7 percent.
"It was another day yesterday of very sharp falls for all of
the base metals to levels that may now have attracted a little
bit of buying," analyst Gayle Berry at Barclays Capital said.
Technical buying was taking advantage of the price dips.
"But from a fundamental perspective things still look very
ugly for at least the next couple of quarters," Berry said.
Copper prices in London are down almost 10 percent so far
this week on worries about demand, following weak housing data,
problems in the auto sector, dismal jobs data and a slump in U.S.
equities to their lowest in a decade.
Copper MCU3 for three-months delivery on the London Metal
Exchange fell to $3,375 per tonne, its lowest since July 2005
before trading at $3,515 by mid-session compared with Thursday's
close of $3,480. The metal fell around 3 percent on Thursday.
By looking at historical data the copper price could fall as
far as $2,000 per tonne, analyst Michael Widmer at BNP Paribas
said in a note.
"Production costs come with caveats. Yet, they can be a
broad guideline for a bottom in metals quotations, as producers
are unable to operate sustainably with negative margins," he
said.
One of the main difficulties when looking at production
costs is that they have come down together with a general fall
in commodity prices, in particular energy costs for miners.
"Freight, energy and iron ore costs are falling, so
production costs are like a moving target," Berry said, adding
that as the components of those costs begin to fall so does the
price floor for the various metals.
Inventories of copper, used widely in power and
construction, are currently at 283,125 tonnes, having risen
around 20 percent so far in November.
Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell
3,797 tonnes, or 18 percent, to 17,699 tonnes, more than
expected, but not enough to offset rising stocks and a growing
surplus in the international market. [ID:nBJD000449]
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported the
world refined copper market saw a surplus of 74,000 tonnes
between January and August this year, versus a surplus of 22,000
tonnes in the year-ago period. [ID:nSP391524]
The picture is grimmer in aluminium. Inventories rose 2,025
tonnes to more than 1.72 million -- the highest since December
1994, pushing the three-month price MAL3 to $1,765 per tonne,
its weakest since July 2005.
The metal, used in transport, power and packaging, traded at
$1,801 per tonne, up $16 from Thursday.
"The market is seeing some investors covering their short
positions ahead of the weekend," an LME ring dealer said.
Aluminium prices could find a price floor at around $1,600,
said Widmer, when looking at the production cost for miners.
The fate of U.S. car makers such as General Motors
(GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Ford Motor Company (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) remain uncertain.
Executives have gone cap-in-hand to Congress for $25 billion
to keep them afloat, but congressional leaders demanded
executives at the Big Three automakers come up with a detailed
business survival plan in exchange for their support.
[ID:nN20421931] [ID:nT41789]
Battery material lead MPB3 was trading at $1,203 a tonne
against $1,185/1,185.5 late on Thursday. Extreme nearby
tightness sent the premium paid for cash material MPB0 to
$200, after being bid as high as $250, for TOM/Next (tomorrow
for delivery next day).
Tin MSN3 bounced after falling 7.6 percent in the previous
session and traded up 4.4 percent at $11,800 versus its close on
Thursday of $11,300.
Zinc MZN3 gained to $1,203 against $1,180 on Thursday when
it dipped 4.3 percent.
Nickel MNI3 was higher at $10,155/10,160 from $9,950 on
Thursday, when the stainless steel ingredient shed 5.3 percent.
Metal Prices at 1342 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2007 Ytd Pct
move
LME Cu 3570.00 90.00 +2.59 6670.00 -46.48
SHFE Cu* 26950.00 -740.00 -2.67 56880.00 -52.62
LME Alum 1802.00 17.00 +0.95 2403.00 -25.01
SHFE Alu* 13260.00 -155.00 -1.16 18180.00 -27.06
COMEX Cu** 156.85 0.00 +0.00 303.05 -48.24
LME Zinc 1199.00 19.00 +1.61 2370.00 -49.41
SHFE Zinc* 9425.00 80.00 +0.86 18950.00 -50.26
LME Nick 10225.00 275.00 +2.76 26350.00 -61.20
LME Lead 1219.00 -11.00 -0.89 2550.00 -52.20
LME Tin 11700.00 400.00 +3.54 16400.00 -28.66
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Reporting by Anna Stablum, editing by Sue Thomas)
Source