JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- However views on the outlook for gold are mixed, as even persistently volatile markets failed to propel it back to its October 10 level of $931/oz.
Last week, gold traded between $730/oz and $760/oz, which was a tighter band than the week before when it ranged between a low of $699/oz and a high of $768/oz.
Platinum surged to $862/oz early last week on news that Lonmin would be cutting back production and forecasts of a higher deficit this year by Johnson Matthey.
But it dropped as low as $759/oz later in the week on uncertainty about a bail-out package for U.S. car makers, as well as more bad news from the car industries in Europe and China.
American Precious Metals Advisers MD Jeffrey Nichols said in a note to clients that gold was a hedge against inflation and deflation, and was least attractive in times of price stability.
In deflationary periods, savings rates tended to rise and interest rates were kept low to encourage economic recovery, which made precious metals more attractive compared to other near-cash investments.
Fairfax Securities analyst John Meyer quoted World Gold Council figures showing Indian demand for gold rose 31% in the September quarter because lower prices encouraged buying after a good monsoon season.
Meyer said he was cautious in the short term and would not be surprised to see the metal pull back below $750/oz.
VM Group said in its latest Fortis Metals Monthly that physical sales of gold were soaring in traditional markets, “but the price has failed to match the hype”. They said gold might show rapid gains when hedge fund liquidations ended, but it needed to do so soon or disillusionment would set in.
Edison Investment Research analyst Charles Gibson said in a report released last week focusing on the junior platinum sector that the steep decline in the platinum price from above $2,250/oz in March to $850/oz reflected a sharp downturn in vehicle production, expectations of weaker engine catalyst demand and platinum sales from exchange traded funds (ETFs).
But Gibson believed the movement had gone too far, based on supply and demand fundamentals.
Excluding the effect of ETFs, Edison expected the platinum market would show a small deficit next year and an average price of $1,350/oz.
“We believe that at current platinum prices, investors have a window of opportunity for an inexpensive entry into the junior sector with considerable upside prospects,” Edison said.
VM Group said platinum was suffering from “a belated realisation” that car sales in Europe might fall even further than in the U.S. But platinum supply remained precarious and prices were unlikely to fall much further from current levels.
VM Group forecast gold would average $825/oz next year but from 2011 would drop to $650/oz. Platinum was seen averaging $1300/oz next year and climbing to $1,500/oz by 2011, with palladium on a similar trend, averaging $250/oz next year and $350/oz in 2011 and 2012.
