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BLBG: Canadian Dollar Posts Sixth Monthly Decline on Commodities
 
By Chris Fournier

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency posted a sixth monthly decline versus its U.S. counterpart as stocks and commodity prices fell, reflecting concern that global economic growth will slow.

The Canadian dollar has dropped 1.9 percent since Oct. 31 and recorded the longest streak of monthly losses in 15 years. The price of crude oil, which accounts for about a tenth of exports, has dropped 63 percent since reaching a peak earlier this year.

“The very sharp fall in oil prices we’ve seen over the last few months has been a significant drag on sentiment for the Canadian dollar,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. “The global economic outlook is really very bleak.”

The Canadian dollar weakened as much as 1.2 percent today to C$1.2467 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.2316 yesterday. It traded at C$1.2361 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. It closed at C$1.2125 on Oct. 31. One Canadian dollar buys 80.90 U.S. cents.

Oil dropped below $50 a barrel last week, after reaching a record $147.27 in July. Crude, which accounts for 21 percent of the Bank of Canada’s Commodity Price Index, the largest single component, rose 1.2 percent today to $55.07.

Energy companies are scaling back development of Canadian oil sands, the world’s biggest energy reserves outside Saudi Arabia. Petro-Canada, the country’s No. 3 oil company, blamed its decision to halt the C$25.3 billion ($20.4 billion) Fort Hills oil-sands project on plunging crude prices and rising costs. It wants Alberta’s government to agree to new lease terms.

‘Risk Aversion’

The MSCI World Index, a gauge of stocks in 23 developed nations, declined 6.8 percent in November.

“Risk aversion is dominating trading this month, whether we look at equities or commodity-based currencies,” said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. “We can look at oil prices and all the other commodities declining and that’s adding some weight.”

Strauss predicts the Canadian dollar will depreciate to C$1.27 by year-end. Osborne forecasts the currency will reach C$1.25 in that period, with “thin, illiquid” markets likely to cause high volatility in the next few weeks.

Canada’s current account surplus shrank by almost a third between July and September to C$5.64 billion as profits companies earned abroad fell and exports slowed.

Political Uncertainty

The loonie, as Canada’s dollar is known for the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, tumbled two days ago after BCE Inc. said its C$52 billion leveraged buyout may collapse. The country’s largest phone company blamed “current market conditions.”

Political uncertainty is also weighing on the currency, according to Strauss. Promises by the country’s opposition parties to fight Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s proposed spending cuts may bring down the minority Conservative Party government.

The yield on the two-year government bond dropped two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.70 percent. It earlier reached 1.69 percent, the lowest since at least 1989, when Bloomberg records begin. The yield was at 2.02 percent a month ago. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 rose 3 cents today to C$102.05.

The 10-year note’s yield dropped three basis points to 3.32 percent. It earlier reached 3.31 percent, also the lowest in almost two decades. The price of the 4.25 percent security maturing in June 2018 climbed 22 cents today to C$107.52.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net

Source