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BLBG: Canada’s Dollar Weakens on Drop in Stocks, ‘Political Noise’
 
By Chris Fournier

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency declined the most in almost two weeks as stocks in the world’s eighth-largest economy fell and the prime minister threatened to suspend Parliament to stave off defeat at the hands of a united opposition.

“Weakness in the Canadian dollar corresponds to weakness in equities,” said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities SA in New York. “The political noise is also adding a little bit to the drop in the currency.”

The Canadian dollar dropped as much as 1.6 percent to C$1.2668 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.2463 yesterday. The currency weakened 3.2 percent on Nov. 20. It traded at C$1.2590 as of 11:39 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 79.37 U.S. cents.

BNP Paribas predicts the Canadian dollar will weaken to C$1.33 by year-end.

Canada’s Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index declined 0.4 percent.

“Canada was one of the few G-20 countries to report positive third-quarter growth, but that advantage is set to fade and we expect the Canadian dollar to be a G-10 underperformer,” Bank of America Corp. strategist Robert Sinche wrote in a note. “Jobs data and possible overturn of government lie ahead.” Bank of America predicts the currency will depreciate to C$1.27 by the end of the third quarter in 2009.

Replace Harper

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper may suspend Parliament after the main opposition Liberal Party agreed two days ago to form a coalition with the New Democratic Party that would be backed by the separatist Bloc Quebecois during key votes. The alliance may replace Harper’s Conservative Party government as early as next week.

The coalition proposal requires the backing of the country’s head of state, Governor General Michaelle Jean, who returns to Canada today after cutting short a state visit to central Europe. Should she refuse the request to let the coalition govern, the country would be forced into its fourth election since 2004.

“The political uncertainty is weighing on the Canadian dollar at the moment,” said Steven Butler, director of foreign- exchange trading at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. “C$1.30 may be in the cards again, depending on Friday’s numbers.”

Statistics Canada and the U.S. Labor Department are due to release employment data on Dec. 5. Canadian employers shed 20,000 jobs in November, according to the median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Two-Year Yield

The yield on the two-year government bond rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.62 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 fell 7 cents to C$102.22.

The 10-year note’s yield increased four basis points to 3.20 percent. The price of the 4.25 percent security maturing in June 2018 dropped 32 cents to C$108.57.

The 10-year bond yielded 158 basis points more than the two- year security, down from 184 basis points on Nov. 6, when the so- called yield curve was the steepest since May 2004.

Canada’s central bank cut borrowing costs six times in the past 12 months, lowering its overnight rate to 2.25 percent from 4.5 percent. Policy makers next meet on Dec. 9, when they will cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.75 percent, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net

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