FST: Metals regain ground but vulnerable short−term
London, 08 December 2008 - Commodity prices finished last week in a damp mood as the massive slump in US payrolls again weighed on investor sentiment. Gold dipped below $745 and closed below pivotal support at $761, crude oil finished 6.5% lower with copper posting a similar loss. Despite the data the US dollar finished little changed with the Euro settling at 1.2726 while the US$ Index finished 0.6% higher at 87.12. While no economic data is scheduled for release today the line up later in the week will focus on the high street with the October Trade Gap, November PPI, Retail Sales and December Consumer Sentiment.
Gold held in a largely sideways mood across the early part of the day, trading between $765-72.80 as traders awaited the payrolls reading. Initial reaction saw gold dip to $760, and after a brief pause the sell-off resumed as speculators cut their risk exposure. After several tranches of selling the metal hit a low of $741.25 before bottoming and recovering towards the end of the day to settle at $751.10. Gold has edged higher overnight on the back of the dollar but looks set to remain under pressure in the week ahead as traders continue to focus on year-end book squaring, risk reduction and maintaining adequate cash exposure. Key support is short-term trend support at $741 and below around $731-28. Commitment of Traders data Friday showed a reduction in the both NC long and short positions with the net long increasing 7.7-tonnes to 262.42-tonnes.
The sell-off in gold again led silver lower Friday although the metal recovered from a low of $9.15 to settle at $9.42. Silver has edged up to $9.72 this morning but should look remain in the broad $9-10.65 range, with interim support/resistance pegged at $9.15/9.74. The NC net long increased 9.47M/oz in the week to December 2nd.
The combined effect of gloomy auto sales from China and the data related sell-off in US trade saw platinum slide to a two-week low of $780 Friday, but after closing at $783 the white metal recovered back to $800/oz in late trade and has pushed back to $815 overnight. Having sustained substantial price corrections between July-October platinum is currently benefiting from a good degree of bargain hunting buying, mainly from those with longer-term outlooks, however, with more negative auto data expected and commodities generally under pressure the short-term view is still a little negative. COT data showed a 42,300/oz decrease in the NC net long as longs were cut and short increased.