FX: Asian Market Update: Rising outlook Obama spark global equity rally
- A broad late-session equity rally in US that shrugged multi-year highs in US unemployment rate and the number of jobs lost in November has resonated loudly across Asian markets. Australia's S&P/ASX was up over 4% going into session close, Nikkei225 traded toward session highs above 5%, Korea's Kospi gained just over 7%, and Hang Seng led regional advancers with a 7.5% jolt. Rumors of a deal for sinking US automakers spurred bullish sentiment in the US in the final two hours of Friday trading, while an expansive "new deal"-type fiscal stimulus plan unveiled by Pres-elect Obama on Saturday has helped reinforce investor optimism over the likelihood of an equity market bounce. The five-part package of the incoming administration was said to aim to create as many as 2.5 million jobs through 2011 by concentrating on raising energy efficiency of buildings, repairing transportation infrastructure, modernizing public schools, augmenting broadband internet capacity, and updating health care technology.
- Implications for renovation of roads and bridges, not only for US stimulus but also for plans in China and the fresh $4B initiative announced this weekend in India, attracted buyers to earthmover and excavator names traded in Tokyo, with Komatsu, Bridgestone, and Hitachi Construction gaining sharply on expectation of infrastructure contracts. In turn, financials sector names traded on the Nikkei seeing pronounced gains, with Mizuho, Sumitomo, and Mitsubishi UMJ all benefiting from notable declines in credit default issues. Elsewhere, Japan's supermarket giant Aeon was up as much as 7% after surfaced reports of a partial acquisition stake by Mitsubishi.
- In Australia, mining and energy giants BHP and Woodside traded up 3% and 8% on recovery in respective commodity sectors. Felix Resources (FLX.AU) continued to attract buying interest on further rumors of a bid by China's Yanzhou Coal. Likewise, media speculation of China National Petroleum teaming up bidding partners like Chevron or BP to acquire Santos (STO.AU) lifted Aussie driller's shares by over 10%. Thus far however, Santos has responded to the possibility of a bid as "pure speculation." Additionally, two Aussie construction names were traded higher after securing substantial building contracts. Leighton (LEI.AU) was reportedly awarded a A$2B contract to build a terminal at Dubai Airport that would accomodate as many as 20 aircraft, including the new-generation Airbus A380. Lend Lease (LLC.AU) company was signed on to build the Gold Coast University Hospital under a A$1.4B contract. According to the company, work on the project would begin this month, with opening scheduled for the end of 2012. Meanwhile, Australia's Treasurer Swan also reiterated his confidence in the stimulus helping the economy dodge a recession in 2009, forecasting a 0.5-1.00% GDP gain and 75K new jobs added as a result of the plan.
- In South Korea, a commitment by economic minister Lee toward the government efforts to increase liquidity, support small business, and cut taxes was also seen as a powerful driver for inverstor optimism. Steel-makers Posco and Hyundai Steel rallied on regional fiscal stimulus measures as well as reports of renegotiated timelines for the start of new iron ore contracts, while Pharma notable Il Dong gained 6.5% after announcing a joint venture with Genexine to develop a treatment for diabetes.
- In currencies, US dollar and Japanese Yen were broadly sold against the majors of Europe, Australia, and Canada. EUR/USD broke above Friday intraday high of 1.28 while taking aim at December high of 1.2850. GBP/USD has also successfully tested pivotal December support turned resistance at 1.48, while CHF further pared its 3 big figure Friday losses with a downward breach of 1.22 in USD/CHF. JPY was rangebound against USD at 92.60-93.00, but traded substantially lower against the rallying EUR and GBP. EUR/JPY was last approaching December ceiling in 119.30-50 range, and GBP/JPY took aim at last week's support turned resistance at 138.20. AUD was the biggest winner on the session, rising to late-November highs against USD while also briefly testing Dec floor against the EUR at 1.95. After succumbing to more polically-driven weakness, Canadian dollar reversed its losses from 1.30 for the 3rd time since late October, trading down to 1.2650. Among the emerging Asian currencies, SGD spiked to December highs against USD toward 1.5150 and USD/KRW remained below 1,500, with critical December-low support found at 1,430.
- Crude oil is higher by more than 4% and for the first time in 7 days, after declining by 6% on Friday's session. Also during the prior week, oil had its largest weekly drop since 1991. Today's oil price gains come as Asian equities are rallying across the board and the USD is weaker against the European majors. Over the weekend, OPEC's President disclosed that markets should brace for a “surprise” decision out of OPEC's Dec 17 meeting in Algeria as markets expect that the cartel will announce a further production cut of at least 1M bpd at the Dec meeting. Additionally, the Lundberg Survey disclosed that on Dec 5 the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the US fell to $1.7526/gallon, which is the lowest price since March 2004. Spot Gold is higher by more than 1.5% and has recovered from a 2-week low as the USD is being sold against the EUR. Oct Tokyo Gold is lower by more than 0.50%, as the JPY is firmer against the USD.