By Christian Schmollinger Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded little changed, after falling 3.8 percent yesterday, on concern that a potential OPEC output cut may not overcome falling demand for fuels amid recessions in the U.S., Japan and Europe. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably lower production targets by at least 2 million barrels a day, or 7.3 percent, at a meeting tomorrow in Oran, Algeria, according to 18 of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. U.S. industrial production contracted for the third time in four months and China’s refineries are processing less crude. “A 2 million-barrel cut is probably priced into the market,” said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Co. in Tokyo, Japan’s biggest commodities asset manager. “The oil price will head down and test the $40 level again whatever OPEC says or whatever agreements they make.” Crude oil for January delivery was at $44.64 a barrel, up 13 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:24 p.m. Singapore time. The contract earlier rose as much as 1.2 percent to $45.02 a barrel. The price has tumbled 70 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11. Yesterday, oil fell $1.77 to $44.51 a barrel. U.S. industrial production declined 0.6 percent in November, the third drop in four months, the Federal Reserve said yesterday in Washington. U.S. fuel demand may drop further as manufacturing in the country declines. Chinese crude processing tumbled to the lowest in 15 months, a report showed. The country’s refineries processed 27.27 million tons of crude last month, or 6.64 million barrels a day, as an economic slowdown cut demand, the China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said in a statement yesterday. That’s down 8.5 percent from 29.8 million tons in October. China is the second-biggest oil-consuming country, after the U.S. Removing Stockpiles Global stockpiles can meet 57 days of world demand, five days more than the five-year average, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said. “Stocks are very high, we need to take action at this time,” El-Badri told reporters when he arrived at his hotel in Oran yesterday. The oil market has 100 million barrels in excess stockpiles, he said. “If they cut 2 million barrels a day tomorrow, then it will probably take 50 days to remove those supplies from the market,” Astmax’s Emori said. The group, which agreed in October to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day starting Nov. 1, has implemented 75 percent of the cut, Khelil, who is also Algeria’s oil minister, told reporters in Oran. Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $44.54 a barrel, down 6 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:55 a.m. Singapore time. The contract declined $1.81, or 3.9 percent, to $44.60 yesterday. The January future expires today. The more active February contract was at $47.20 a barrel, up 6 cents, at 1:25 p.m. Singapore time. To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

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