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BLBG: Treasuries Fall as Asian Stocks Extend Global Gains on Fed Cut
 
By Ron Harui


Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, driving yields up from record lows, as Asian stocks extended a global rally following the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut to zero.

Thirty-year bonds led declines after the Fed said it may increase purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage debt to push down home-loan rates. A senior Fed official said the central bank may accept lower-rated securities as collateral to ease the credit crunch. The Treasury may announce tomorrow the biggest- ever sales of two- and five-year notes due for auction next week, according to Wrightson ICAP LLC.

“The rise in Asian equities is spurring selling of Treasuries,” said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who oversees about $3 billion as a fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. “This selling may be temporary as the short-term outlook for U.S. debt is still bullish.”

Yields on 30-year bonds rose six basis points to 2.77 percent as of 6 a.m. in London, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 4.5 percent security maturing in May 2038 dropped 1 13/32, or $14.06 per $1,000 face amount, to 134 18/32.

Ten-year yields gained one basis point to 2.27 percent and two-year rates increased two basis points to 0.67 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares climbed 2.6 percent following a 5.1 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index yesterday, the biggest gain in three weeks. The dollar dropped to a 13-year low versus the yen.

Returns Swell

The Fed said in a statement that it “will employ all available tools” to promote economic growth after cutting the federal funds rate target to between zero and 0.25 percent, from 1 percent. It also lowered the rate on direct loans to banks and securities dealers to 0.5 percent.

Treasuries are still poised for the best year in 13 years after investors sought even the lowest yields to safeguard their money as the global economy entered a recession and credit markets froze.

U.S. government debt returned 13.7 percent in 2008, the most since an 18.5 percent increase in 1995, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master Index. German bunds returned 10.6 percent and Japanese securities 2 percent.

“People are more concerned about losing their money rather than getting a good return,” said Adam Carr, a senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “They’d rather have the knowledge that their money is safe.”

Yield Curve

Purchases of U.S. securities drove yields on two-year notes to 0.62 percent, the lowest level since sales began in 1975, and rates on 10-year debt to 2.25 percent, the least since 1953.

Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds fell to record lows.

Ten-year notes have outperformed their two-year counterparts this week. The difference in yield between the securities narrowed to 1.62 percentage points, near the least since Sept. 16, and down from the year’s high of 2.62 percentage points in November.

“Short-term yields are almost zero, so longer-dated bonds such as the 10-year sector are likely to perform well,” said Shun Totani, senior fund manager for Tokyo-based Asahi Life Asset Management Co., which handles the equivalent of $340 million in debt.

The Treasury may announce tomorrow that it will sell $37 billion of two-year notes on Dec. 22 and $27 billion of five-year debt the following day, according to Wrightson ICAP, a research unit of the world’s largest inter-dealer broker based in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Buying Treasury Debt

Fed policy makers said in a statement yesterday that they’re weighing the potential benefits of buying longer-term Treasuries and are “ready to expand” purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities “as conditions warrant.”

With the Fed’s statement, policy makers joined the Bank of Japan as the only other major central bank in modern times to adopt a policy of rate cuts with quantitative easing, or the strategy of injecting more reserves into the banking system than needed to keep the target interest rate at zero.

The cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds from default declined. The Markit iTraxx Australia index of credit-default swaps fell 45 basis points to 360 basis points, Citigroup Inc. data show. The Markit iTraxx Japan index was 20 basis points lower at 310, according to BNP Paribas SA.

The swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities if a borrower fails to adhere to its debt agreements.

The Fed also said inflation pressures “have diminished appreciably,” hours after a government report showed consumer prices fell by the most on record in November.

The breakeven rate, or the difference in yields between 10- year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and conventional U.S. notes, was 0.15 percentage point compared with 0.36 percentage point at the start of the month and the year’s high of 2.67 points in March. The gap reflects the rate of inflation traders expect for the next decade.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net

Source