As you read this I’m at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport awaiting my flight back to the U.S. to get home for the holidays.
And since next Thursday is Christmas Day, and I’m off, I would like to wish you a very happy holiday.
Right now, though, I’ve got a lot of ground to cover with you. So let’s get started. Specifically, I’m going to give you quick updates on gold, the broad U.S. stock market, and China.
But first, you need to be fully aware of the following: All of my warnings are coming to pass.
With this week’s actions — slashing of the Fed funds rate to 0.25% and committing to buying virtually any assets they need to, effectively monetizing bad assets and debts — the Federal Reserve and Chairman Ben Bernanke are pulling out all the stops.
By hook or crook, they are — and will continue to — set the conditions for a deeply devalued dollar … and a re-inflation of asset prices. And they will succeed at doing it.
Now, I have a fascinating tidbit I just have to share with you.
On December 1, the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER — the final arbiter and dater of recession cycles in this country — officially announced that a recession started way back in December 2007.
Duh? I announced in my August 30, 2007, Money and Markets column that a severe recession had already started, four months before it actually started and 16 months before the NBER says it started.
We all know the NBER is late when it comes to recognizing recessions. But when their recent announcement came out, it got me thinking …
“Exactly how late are the NBER announcements compared to actual recessions?”
“What really is the NBER’s track record?” And …
“How do the NBER’s official recession announcements compare to the end of recessions?”
Fortunately, James Stack at InvesTech Research already did the research for me when his December 12 issue came across my desk. It’s mindboggling. I’ve put his findings in a table below, with my additional comments in the far right column.
