BD: Platinum price surge ‘likely to be short term’
PLATINUM companies’ share prices surged on the JSE on Friday as the platinum price moved to its highest level in two-and-a-half months following g ood news and technical factors.
But analysts warned that poor US car sales data for last month, due for release shortly, would cap short-term gains in the metal.
Aquarius Platinum, Anglo Platinum, Lonmin and Impala Platinum ranked among the JSE’s top 20 gainers on Friday. Aquarius added 14%, or 349c, to R28,49, Angloplat was 6% higher at R547, Lonmin firmed 5,4% to R136,99 and Implats grew 4,6% to R141,27.
But investors are still showing a 62% capital loss in Implats since its peak of R368 in early March, a 75% loss in Lonmin from R548, a 79% loss in Aquarius from R135 and a 62,5% loss on Angloplat from its peak of R1460.
Spot platinum was trading at $922/oz by the end of last week, a level last seen on October 22. It has recovered about 26% since plunging to a recent low of $732/oz in late October but remains a long way below the peak of $2 299/oz touched in early March.
Platinum refiner Heraeus said in Friday’s Precious Metals Weekly that platinum had gained strength from a rise in the gold price and reports of further government support for the US car industry.
Technical factors also played a part as the price moved through the $880/oz resistance level.
But in the next two weeks Heraeus did not expect that charts would support the platinum price.
“Instead, the fundamental data from the international automobile market should again gain the upper hand, and these are anything but rosy at the moment, as will certainly be evident once the December figures are published. As such we do not expect the metal in the short term to shoot above the $960/oz mark. It should rather trade between $880 and $960/oz.”
James Moore, of The Bullion Desk in London, said in his Friday bullion report that platinum had shed almost 39% last year. “Short term, the metal needs to consolidate above $930 to enable a re-test above $1000/oz, but with December’s auto sales figures likely to cast more gloom over the complex, we could see a dip back into the $780-$880/oz area,” he said.
Platinum group metals prices fell in mid-September after the US mortgage crisis exposed structural weakness in the US economy, affecting the outlook for vehicle sales and precipitating a crisis among US car makers. Platinum and palladium are used to reduce emissions from car exhausts.
In the past month, platinum prices have seesawed on uncertainty about a bail-out package for the US car industry but by the end of last week the first loan payments to General Motors and Chrysler were being finalised.
Platinum has also gained from announcements of cutbacks in production late last year by Aquarius, because of ground instability at its Everest mine, and by Angloplat, which expects to maintain output at 2,4-million ounces instead of increasing it to 2,7-million ounces, as originally planned.
In October, Lonmin also said platinum production in its 2009 financial year would be similar to last year’s .