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HS: Gold to have boom year
 
GOLD - the traditional safe haven in times of crisis - has performed well in the downturn as other investments have been battered.

But some experts predict it could be a standout investment this year because of major concerns about the stability of the US dollar and limited supplies available.

Gold is a unique commodity - not only is it consumed, like other metals, but it is also an intrinsic store of value that historically has been immune to inflation.

That is why most central banks hold gold in their reserves.

According to Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at the ANZ, central banks are hoarding it.

"There is 33,000 tonnes sitting in central banks, which is the equivalent of 10 years' supply of gold," he said.

Mr Pervan said central banks are holding the gold because of fear about the way the US is using the printing press to refloat its economy.

"We haven't seen how all the cash they are printing will play out yet," he said.

"They're giving it to banks and the banks aren't doing anything with it, but the moment the banks start pushing that money back into the economy, inflation will come back and gold will surge."

His view is shared by American finance guru Peter Schiff - one of the few economists to predict the credit crisis.

Mr Schiff recently spoke out against the current rally by the dollar - saying it made no sense and was likely to end in a big correction this year.

"I think it's a safe haven," he said of gold.

" A lot of people are seeking safety right now in the US dollar, but that makes no sense to me. That's like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

"I think the dollar is a fundamentally flawed currency that is doomed to collapse and temporarily it's benefiting from the fact it's seen as the alternative to everything else."

While Mr Pervan does not predict the end of the dollar, he does think its rally is helping the price of gold.

"Policy makers don't want their currencies to rise against the dollar - particularly the Euro and the Yen," he said.

"They have to put their money somewhere, so they are buying gold."

Shortness of supply could also help push up the price.

"As well as central banks hoarding their gold, mine production is falling sharply - especially in major producing regions like South Africa.

``There haven't been many major new discoveries and, as with oil, the gold that is available is deeper underground and more expensive to extract," Mr Pervan said.

The credit crunch has also played its part.

"While the good thing for gold is you can set up operations pretty quickly, there has been a difficulty in raising money for ventures that are not going to see any production for at least 18 months."

If gold is to have a good year, what is the best way for the ordinary investor to buy?

``One popular strategy is to buy shares in a gold mining company, because most miners are unhedged - that is they are fully exposed to current market prices.

"Unlike BHP, which has a contract with China to sell iron ore at $95 for a fixed period, most gold producers sell at the market price on a daily basis, which means the shares go up and down with the gold price," Mr Pervan said.

But according to Allan Furlong, manager of private client services with brokers Joseph Palmer & Sons, trying to ride the gold price through mining companies can be a recipe for disaster.

"The gold price is fine - there is not a drama there - it's individual stocks that are the problem," he said.

"We have seen a bull market in gold for the past three years, but I have seen numerous gold stocks blow up.

"These stocks on paper have a good little reserve and they're all unhedged - which means they have exposure to the upside - but they often end up being in administration or economically challenged.

"There is a view all you have to do is pick a gold mining stock and you can ride the market price, but you need to do a lot more work than that, because of the incredibly hard work involved in the logistics of bringing a mine into production."

Not that Mr Furlong thinks the gold price will fall this year.

"I expect gold to stay up until we come out of this credit crunch," he said.

But Mr Furlong said mum and dad investors would be better off buying physical gold.

"If you want gold - if you think the world is going to end - then go and buy physical gold and pay to have it stored somewhere," he said.

Another way of riding the gold price without holding gold is through exchange traded funds, which are listed securities that track the price of gold.

These are backed by physical gold, but can be traded like shares and involve no handling costs.

Mr Pervan thinks these are good way for the small investor to buy gold.

"The current price of gold is about $US850 an ounce, which I expect to ease a bit in the first half of this year while the dollar continues to rise, but in the second half I expect gold to rise," he said.

"By the end of the year it could be pushing $US1000 an ounce."
Source