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BLBG: Platinum Falls for Fourth Day as Auto Sales Slump; Gold Stable
 
Platinum fell for a fourth day in London, heading for its worst streak since October, as a decline in car sales trimmed demand for the metal used in autocatalysts. Gold was little changed near a one-month low.

European car sales dropped 18 percent in December as the economic recession crimped demand, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said today. Sales fell 7.8 percent last year, the biggest plunge since 1993. Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest carmaker, said it would cut domestic production further in February and March.

“The fundamentals look very negative,” Bayram Dincer, a commodity analyst at Dresdner Bank, said by phone from Zurich. “We don’t expect a recovery until 2010” in the auto industry, he said. “That puts a lot of pressure on platinum.”

Platinum for immediate delivery slid as much as $33, or 3.5 percent, to $902.50 an ounce and traded at $917 by 10:48 a.m. in London. It fell 39 percent in 2008, its worst performance since at least 1987, and is down 1.9 percent this year. Before this week’s slump, the metal gained for seven sessions and had advanced as much as 6.3 percent this year.

Automakers account for about half of global platinum and palladium consumption, according to estimates by Johnson Matthey Plc, a London-based metals refiner, trader and researcher. The figures take recycling into account.

Limited Downside

“The recent rally in platinum has been largely due to speculation and improved sentiment, and we would therefore not be surprised to see the price retracing in the next few weeks,” Standard Chartered Plc analyst Dan Smith wrote today in a note. Still, “prices have already discounted most of the bad news about demand” and expectations for a weaker U.S. dollar and the threat of further mine closures should “limit the downside,” he said.

London-based Smith raised his 2009 average price forecast for the metal to $1,025 an ounce, from $1,000 an ounce.

Gold traded near a one-month low before a European Central Bank meeting where economists expect interest rates to be cut by at least a half-percentage point. Lower rates may weaken the euro against the dollar. Gold typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency.

Bullion for immediate delivery added 40 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $812.10 an ounce. The metal has declined 7.9 percent this year. February futures rose $3.30, or 0.4 percent, to $812.10 in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil, Equities

The expected rate cut “should continue to support the dollar,” Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Ltd. in Johannesburg, wrote in a report. “Global economic sentiment remains negative; crude oil and equity markets continue to dictate direction for precious metals.”

Standard Chartered’s Smith increased his 2009 gold estimate by 11 percent to $971 an ounce on tighter supply and continued safe-haven buying. Gold in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, expanded by 0.4 percent to a record 790.66 metric tons, the company’s Web site shows.

Gold declined to $813 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $821.50 at the afternoon fixing yesterday.

Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, silver fell 1 percent to $10.48 an ounce and palladium was 2.7 percent lower at $178 an ounce.
Source