SP: Annual Report on Chinas Steel Market in 2008 and the Outlook for 2009
SteelHome publishes its 'Annual Report on China's Steel Market in 2008 and the Outlook for 2009’. The report includes 14 separate reports on World Steel Market, China Steel Market, China HRC/CRC Market, China Wire Rod/Rebar Market, China Plate Market, China Stainless Steel Market, China Seamless Steel Pipe Market, China Strip Market, China Plated/coated Coil Market, China Section Market, and China Iron Ore Market, China Coke Market, China Scrap Market, China Ferroalloy Market.
Table of Contents
I Analysis on sharp rise and sharp fall in 2008 China steel market
1 Massive hike in China steel market in H1, 2008
A. Snow storm affected steel supply
B. Power coal and coke supply shortage during Spring Festival
C. Massive rise in iron ore contracted price
D. Influences of Beijing Olympics
E. Prefab construction after Wenchuan earthquake drove up cold rolled products market
F. Continuous depreciation of US dollar, crazy hike in commodity price and spreading inflation all over the world
G. World steel price surged
In spite of the tightened money policy the government implemented, inflation pressure still mounted, which cushioned the contradiction of the glut.
2 China steel price plummeted from the 3rd quarter.
A. China economy grew slower in the 3rd quarter.
B. Continuously tightening money policy exerted great pressure on capital flow.
C. International commodity price dropped with the depreciation of USD
D. Financial crisis blew heavily on market psychology.
3 China crude steel supply forecast
A. According to current market situations and production cutbacks amid many steel mills, SteelHome revised its formal prediction of 520-530 million tons of 2008 crude steel production to about 510 million tons, up 4.2% or 20 million tons year on year.
B. SteelHome assumes China steel products exports of 2008 at 57.50 million tons, down 8.2% or 5.15 million tons year on year
II China steel market anticipation for 2009
1 SteelHome assumes 540 million tons of China crude steel output in 2009.
A. Market price will further curb the growth of steel production
B. Coke supply continue to curb steel production
C. The investment in China steel industry will maintain low.
D. Flats production will stay high, and glut will not change.
E. The utilization of steel capacity stay high.
2 Financial crisis hinder China steel exports
A. World economy grow slower and steel demand dims
B. China steel exports will be improved with the resolve of financial crisis.
3 Steel demand in China home markets will sustain stable rise, but the growth rate will drop from 2008.
A. Advantages—Comprehensive national power is strengthened
B. Disadvantages—Domestic demand takes up small proportion of GDP.
C. Expectation for 2009 China Economic Growth
D. Little headroom for FAI rise.
E. Export rise slows down further.
F. Consumption grow slower.
G. Analysis on Downstream Sectors. In 2008, some steel-consuming industries are also on downward slope.
H. Steel consumption rise forecast in China home market in 2009
4 China steel market forecast for 2009
List of Tables:
1 Average Price Change in China 28 Major Cities (in yuan per ton)
2 Backward Capacity Elimination in China Steel Industry
3 IMF Outlook on World Economic Growth
4 China Crude Steel Net Export Scenarios
5 Crude Steel Demand and GDP
6 Crude Steel Demand and FAI
7 Economic Gauges in 1997-2008
