Worst quarter in 26 years led by weak spending, investment, exports The U.S. economy experienced its most violent contraction in a generation during the fourth quarter, with real gross domestic product plunging at a 6.3% annualized seasonally adjusted rate, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in its third estimate of quarterly growth. GDP hadn't fallen so much since the first quarter of 1982. It was the third largest decline in GDP in 50 years. Economists believe the current quarter, which ends March 31, was nearly as bad. Current projections look for GDP to fall at a 5.1% annual pace. Since 1947, GDP has never fallen by more than 4% for two quarters in a row. Some have a more extreme view: "The economy will contract by a staggering 7% to 8% in the first quarter, before the economy begins to stabilize,"wrote Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight. GDP is expected to fall 2% in the second quarter, according to a suvey of economists conducted by MarketWatch. "It is far too early to get bullish on the economy, as a lot could go wrong between now and mid-year, we still have no evidence that the meltdown in the labor market has begun to abate, and the federal government seems to be working very hard to sabotage a recovery," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital. In 2008, the economy grew 1.1%, the slowest growth since 2001. GDP fell at a 0.5% pace in the third quarter. Read the full government report. The recession that began in December 2007 intensified in the fourth quarter following the government's rescue of several large financial institutions and the collapse of Lehman Bros. The ensuing credit squeeze has driven consumer and business confidence to generational lows, and cost 3 million Americans their jobs. Most economists don't expect GDP to grow until the second half of the year, when the leading edge of the $787 billion fiscal stimulus plan begins to have an impact. Growth next year is expected to be so tepid that unemployment is likely to keep rising. In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 to 652,000 last week. Continuing claims jumped by 122,000 to a record 5.56 million. See full story. The slump in the economy in the fourth quarter was broad based, with declines in every major sector except the federal government. Corporate profits fell at the fastest pace since 1953. Final sales to domestic purchasers -- domestic demand -- fell at a 5.8% annual rate, the biggest drop since the second quarter of 1980. A month ago, the government agency said the economy fell at a 6.2% annual rate. The downward revision to a 6.3% drop was smaller than the 6.7% decline expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Preview. The big revision came from inventories, where a small increase in stockpiles that was originally reported turned into a small decline in the final revision. There were other minor revisions, mostly offsetting each other. Bright spots There were a few bright spots in the GDP report. While the liquidation of inventories subtracted from growth in the fourth quarter, it should be a positive factor going forward because firms will have fewer overstocks to reduce before they can resume production. Prices fell at the fastest pace on record, helping consumers' and businesses' purchasing power. The personal consumption expenditure price index fell a record 4.9% annualized, while core prices rose just 0.9%. Real disposable incomes increased at a 2.7% pace.

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