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WSJ: Australia Dollar Up Modestly Late As Equities Rally Continues
 
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Steady but consistent growth in global equities markets' so-called bear market rally continued to support the Australian dollar in late Asian trade Friday.

The Australian dollar continued to hug the US$0.70 mark tightly Friday, providing some speculation it may be forming a firmer base around that psychologically important figure.

While modest in scope, regional equities markets mostly tracked another Wall Street gain, taking more risk-driven currencies like the Australian dollar with them.

At 0505 GMT, the unit was quoted at US$0.7001 up from US$0.6993 late Thursday. Against the Japanese yen, it was at Y68.835 up from Y68.37.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Chief Currency Strategist Richard Grace said it would be positive for the long-term technical strength of the currency if it can finish the week in New York above the US$0.7100 mark.

But a few events on the domestic and global macroeconomic calendar next week may put the Australian dollar's recent comeback to the test.

"I think we could go on with it but I'm still looking for it to run out of steam close to the European Central Bank meeting next week," Grace said.

The ECB holds its monthly policy meeting Thursday. Economists expect the central bank to cut the its key cash rate again.

However, of more concern to market participants is the possibility ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet articulates some shift in policy toward quantitative easing, either explicitly or implicitly.

Similar moves already made by the U.S. and U.K. central banks have had a significant negative impact on the U.S. dollar and British pound.

Any such rhetoric would likely be negative for the euro and, by association, the Australian dollar.

Australian bond futures were mixed late in the Asian session, with shorter dated bond future prices modestly retracing some of their recent losses while longer-dated bond futures eased off slightly.

ICAP Senior Economist Adam Carr said there is a heavy market focus on domestic economic data and talks by senior officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.

In addition, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its February retail trade, building approvals and international trade balance data next week.

"Those figures will prove pretty conclusive in terms of guiding market sentiment and price action. If we get a good retail figure, you can pretty much rule out an April rate cut by the RBA and futures will sell off," Carr said.

The June three-year bond futures contract gained 2.5 ticks to 96.52 while the 10-year bond futures contact fell two ticks to 95.47.

Source