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FX: Copper slips from near 5-mth high on demand doubts
 
Copper prices rose to their highest in nearly 5 months on Friday, but slipped as doubts grew about the strength of real demand from manufacturers, particularly in China. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $4,020 a tonne at 1051 GMT compared with an earlier $4,168, the highest since November 10. The metal used in power and construction closed at $4,085 a tonne on Thursday.
A major reason behind the price rise is the flow of copper to China, the world\'s largest consumer, in recent months. But analysts say most of it is heading for consumer or government stockpiles and does not mean real demand is picking up.
\"We\'re still seeing Chinese buying ... I\'m assuming most of this buying is going into stockpiles at the moment,\" said David Wilson, analyst at Societe Generale.
\"We\'re probably close to a bottoming in terms of the downside, but we\'re not expecting any sort of major pick up in activity until towards the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter.\"
On the radar is the G20 meeting next week, where some heads of state are hoping to thrash out stimulus plans to kick-start economies, but traders say any new money will take a long time to feed through into activity.
Also on the watch list for next week are surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing, a key guide to demand for industrial metals.
CHINA CUSTOMS
Also Behind the rise in copper are short term investors such as hedge funds and bank traders, buying back short position -- bets on lower prices -- built up over the last few months.
Analysts say further short position covering could help prices rally higher and that China\'s record high copper imports in February -- 270,948 tonnes -- could mean it will be sooner rather than later.
\"We believe this reflects the market confusing Chinese strategic reserve buying with actual consumer demand. We believe the sector needs to fear most another relapse in global equity markets,\" Deutsche Bank said in a note.
Moves in industrial metals have in recent months tended to track equity markets.
\"However, we have become more confident that the all time price lows hit at the turn of the year across the energy and industrial metals complex will not be revisited,\" Deutsche said.
Last December copper touched $2,825, its lowest since 2004, on a sell-off triggered by the escalating financial crisis and worries about a global recession.
However, stronger Chinese demand, whether apparent or real, has been reflected in the high premium for copper in Shanghai over London.
The premium for aluminium, used in transport and packaging, has also jumped to a record high and is likely to send imports soaring to China, the world\'s largest producer and consumer.
But prices are unlikely to rally to the same extent as copper because China is tightening customs checks on a flood of imported primary aluminium.
\"From a fundamental standpoint, most at risk of a downward slide is aluminium, where the pace of output cuts has slowed,\" Barclays Capital said in a note.
Aluminium was at $1,432 a tonne from $1,442 at the close on Thursday, zinc was at $1,323 from $1,348, lead at $1,275 from $1,320, nickel at $9,640 from $9,725 and tin at $10,100 from $10,140.
The backwardation -- premium for the cash contract over the three-month contract -- at around $155 a tonne, is below levels above $200 seen earlier this week, but it compares with a discount early in February.
A major reason for the shortage of supplies for immediate delivery is a dominant holding of LME stocks, traders said.
According to the latest LME data, 90 percent of tin cash warrants are controlled by one entity.
Source