Oil fell below $49 a barrel on speculation a government report today will show U.S. inventories rose from a 15-year high as fuel demand slows. Crude-oil stockpiles probably rose 3 million barrels in the week ended March 27 from 356.6 million the previous week, their highest since July 1993, according to a Bloomberg survey before today’s Energy Department report. Yesterday the industry-backed American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.28 million barrel increase in crude supplies. “Crude stocks are at a really high level,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG in Vienna. “If there is some substantial increase in crude inventories today the market could go very fast to $45.” Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as $1.48, or 3 percent, to $48.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $48.35 a barrel at 11:41 a.m. London time. It has slumped 52 percent in the past year. Oil rose $1.25, or 2.6 percent, to $49.66 a barrel yesterday as equities gained and a weaker dollar enhanced the appeal of commodities. Crude gained 11 percent in the first quarter after tumbling 56 percent in the previous three months. Last month’s 11 percent increase was the biggest since May. Oil Stockpiles The Group of 20 summit will start tomorrow as world leaders attempt to reach an agreement to stabilize their economies in the midst of the global recession. The Bank of Japan’s Tankan index of sentiment among manufacturers fell to a record low of minus 58. The API report showed that crude oil supplies climbed to 357.8 million barrels last week. Figures from the API and the U.S. Energy Department have moved in the same direction 75 percent of the time in the past four years. It also said that distillate stocks, including diesel fuel and heating oil, rose 1.78 million barrels, or 1.2 percent, to 144.5 million barrels, the highest since Jan. 12, 2007. “The API numbers will be used as a guide for what the Energy Department numbers will show so the gain there will be viewed as a negative for the oil price,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The consumption side is still weak and that’s likely to remain the case.” The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly supply update at 10:30 a.m. today in Washington. The report is forecast to show that crude-oil stockpiles rose 3 million barrels in the week ended March 27 from 356.6 million the previous week, according to the median of analyst estimates. Gasoline Stockpiles Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.5 million barrels from 214.6 million the prior week, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably declined 1.15 million barrels from 143.9 million. Refineries probably operated at 82.3 percent of capacity, up 0.3 percentage point from the week before, according to the survey. It would be the first gain in four weeks. Refiners often shut units for maintenance as attention shifts away from heating oil and before gasoline use rises with warmer weather. Brent crude oil for May settlement fell as much as $1.33, or 2.7 percent, to $47.90 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $48.17 a barrel at 11:42 a.m. London time.`

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