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BLBG: Oil Falls Before Report Forecast to Show U.S. Unemployment Rose
 
Crude oil dropped before a report forecast to show the U.S. jobless rate rose to a 25-year high, adding to concern fuel demand will slide further.

Oil gave up earlier gains as traders locked in profits from yesterday’s 8.8 percent rally, driven by the Group of 20 plan to foster global economic recovery. The dollar strengthened against the euro, dimming the appeal of commodities such as crude used to hedge against inflation.

“After a big rally like yesterday’s, you have to expect some profit-taking,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix Gmbh in Zug, Switzerland. “When you look at the huge level of crude stocks and the market structure it’s difficult to justify prices above $55.”

Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as 92 cents, or $1.8 percent, to $51.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $52.15 at 12:47 p.m. London time.

The U.S. Labor Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Unemployment jumped to 8.5 percent from 8.1 percent in February, according to the median of 79 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The data may also show employers cut 660,000 workers, bringing total losses since the recession began to 5 million, the biggest slump in the postwar era.

Yesterday, oil rose $4.25 to settle at $52.64 a barrel, the biggest increase since March 12, after the Group of 20 nations pledged more than $1 trillion in emergency aid to cushion the fallout from the global recession.

Falling Consumption

Still, reports showing rising oil inventories and falling consumption signal the recession is still holding down demand. U.S. crude supplies climbed 2.84 million barrels in the week ended March 27 to the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department reported April 1. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.23 million barrels to 216.8 million.

The dollar strengthened to $1.3427 against the euro as of 12:17 p.m. in London, from $1.3461 yesterday, on speculation the European Central Bank is moving too slowly in tackling the biggest financial crisis in six decades.

Brent crude oil for May settlement fell as much as 77 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $51.98 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $52.38 a barrel at 12:49 p.m. London time. The contract rose $4.31, or 8.9 percent, to $52.75 a barrel yesterday.

Crude oil may trade between $47 and $53 a barrel in New York next week as U.S. stockpiles increase and OPEC members reduce production to bolster prices.

Sixteen of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 48 percent, said futures will be little changed through April 9. Twelve respondents, or 36 percent, forecast that oil will decline and five said there will be an increase. Last week, 53 percent of analysts expected prices to decline.

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