AFP: Base Metals: Immediate strong rebound unlikely
Industrial metal prices rose from last few week on speculation that government spending plans in the U.S. and China would help revive global economic growth and boost demand for industrial metals.
Today, Japan will announce detail of $100 billion plan which is around 2 percent of GDP, to stimulate an economy deep in recession, as a tumbling current account surplus for February showed the toll from the financial crisis on exports. The Japanese economy is expected to shrink 2.5 percent in the first quarter of this year and 0.4 percent in the second quarter, according to a Reuter’s poll.
Central Bank council of Euro suggested that ECB may cut its benchmark interest rate below 1 percent if the economy worsens and could also buy corporate debt to stimulate lending, from its currently interest rate which is at 1.25 percent.
GM, operating on $13.4 billion of government loans since the start of the year, has to complete a reorganization plan by June 1. The government has warned that the alternative would be bankruptcy. If this bankruptcy happens it will add further unemployment concern in economy.
Today we have data on US wholesale inventories & MBA mortgage application and Germany factory orders. closed at $4379, up by 2.55 % from its last close. The rest of the metal complex was in up except Zinc. LME Aluminum closed at $1355/ton, LME Nickel closed at $10905/ton, LME Zinc closed at $1355/ton and LME Lead closed at $1334/ton, up by 0.30%.
Metals
Copper April contract on MCX made a low of Rs.218.9 and closed at Rs.220.4, up by 1.36% on back of declined inventories from warehouses.
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus spending has fueled rebounds in steel and electricity output and restored investment to rates that preceded the financial crisis according to the World Bank. China would start to recover this year as showed from Copper prices, which has surged 41 percent in 2009.
Russia will drop a 5 percent import tariff on copper scrap and waste for nine months to raise supply of raw materials to domestic copper refiners.
KME Group's, one of the world's leading makers of copper and copper alloy products, output including special products fell 8.6 percent to 571,000 tonnes in 2008 from 625,000 tonnes in 2007.
Inventories tallied by the London Metal Exchange fell for the second time in three days to 501,900 tons yesterday. Still, stockpiles are 48 percent above their levels at the start of the year and are more than four times those of a year ago. Even in last two days Cancelled warrants jumped to 60,850 tonnes, up by 140 percent from a level of 25,475 tonnes a week earlier.
Market Outlook
Data related to industrial commodities gave some consolidation figure as showed from metal prices but we still expect that an immediate, strong rebound is unlikely.