BLBG: Oil Falls a Fourth Day on Forecast U.S. Supplies Rose Last Week
Oil fell for a fourth day, its longest losing streak since February, on swelling U.S. crude stockpiles, tumbling equities and a stronger dollar.
The Energy Department will probably say crude stockpiles climbed from a 15-year high last week because of lower refinery operating rates, a Bloomberg News survey said. The industry- funded American Petroleum Institute said late yesterday supplies jumped 6.94 million barrels. The dollar strengthened to its highest against the euro in a week, dulling the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.
“The stock build yesterday was massive and we may see this trend confirmed this afternoon,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Demand in the U.S. is weak, and will probably stay weak. Also the dollar is seen as safe haven, and that’s weighing on the price.”
Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as $1.78, or 3.6 percent, to $47.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest intraday price since April 1. It was at $47.75 a barrel at 11:52 a.m. London time.
Futures have dropped 8.9 percent this week as falling equities signal investor pessimism that the global economy has started to emerge from its slump. The advancing U.S. currency limits the need to counter inflation with dollar-price assets like crude.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index declined for a fourth day, dropping 0.4 percent to 182.68 as of 11:54 a.m. in London. Yesterday, crude dropped $1.90, or 3.7 percent, to $49.15 a barrel, the lowest close since April 1.
UBS Forecast
UBS AG cut its 2009 forecast for crude oil traded in New York by 15 percent to $51 a barrel as the global economic slowdown lowers demand for fuel, according to a report yesterday from analysts led by William Featherston.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile exchange will average $58 a barrel in 2010, down from an earlier estimate of $75, the bank said.
Oil supplies increased last week to 364.7 million barrels, the API said, the highest since 1990. The report was released at 4:30 p.m. in Washington. The two reports have moved in the same direction 75 percent of the time in the past four years.
API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The Energy Department requires reports to be filed for its weekly survey. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. today in Washington.
U.S. Stockpiles
Crude-oil inventories climbed 2.84 million barrels to 359.4 million in the week ended March 27, the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department reported on April 1. It was the 23rd gain in 27 weeks. The increase left supplies 13 percent higher than the five-year average.
Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.4 million barrels from 216.8 million the prior week, according to the survey of analysts. Distillate fuels, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably fell 600,000 barrels from 144.2 million.
Refineries probably operated at 81.7 percent of capacity, unchanged from the week before and down from 82.7 percent from a month earlier, according to the responses in the survey.
Brent crude oil for May settlement dropped for a third day, declining as much as $1.42, or 2.8 percent, to $49.80 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.
May Brent futures are more than $2 a barrel higher than Nymex West Texas Intermediate oil for the same month, the biggest premium for the front-month contract since Feb. 24. Brent oil is often priced at a discount to WTI crude and traded lower for most of March.
“Demand for Brent and Brent-linked grades is more healthy than for the WTI,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at Newedge Group in Tokyo. “This premium of Brent over WTI is more reflective of the real market because the inventories in the U.S. are at a historical high.”