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BLBG: Asian Currencies: Peso, Singapore Dollar Lead Drop on Economy
 
Asian currencies weakened, led by the Philippine peso and the Singapore dollar, on concern reports this week will show a recovery in the global economy is flagging.

The Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asian Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies outside of Japan, dropped to a one-week low before reports that may show U.S. durable goods orders and home sales slumped in March, after rebounding the previous month. South Korean economic growth and Taiwan export orders reports may show demand for Asian goods is cooling.

“The market has taken too much risk and is vulnerable to downside surprises,” said Sean Callow, a Sydney-based senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. “Our models are telling us to sell risk-sensitive currencies. The hard numbers on the economy are still very bad.”

The peso declined 0.5 percent to 48.085 per U.S. dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It gained 0.3 percent last week. Singapore’s currency fell 0.5 percent to S$1.5089 and Malaysia’s ringgit slid 0.4 percent to 3.6318.

The Asia Dollar Index slid 0.2 percent, after posting gains in six of the last seven weeks. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares added 0.3 percent, after earlier tumbling as much as 1.1 percent.

Investors pumped more money into emerging-market shares in each of the six weeks through April 15, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, a research company that tracks $11 trillion of funds.

Sliding Exports

U.S. bookings for goods meant to last several years fell 1.5 percent, the fifth drop in six months, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of a Commerce Department report April 24. Combined sales of new and existing homes likely decreased to a 5.02 million annual rate, down from a 5.06 million pace in February, other figures may show.

The peso touched the lowest level since April 2 after the government last week reported a 39 percent plunge in February exports. Economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto today said growth slowed to as little as 2.1 percent in the first quarter, which would be the least since 1999.

“Trade flows are decreasing at 40 percent; this is very negative for domestic demand,” said Simon Wong, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong.

Import Deals

South Korea’s currency weakened for the first time in three days on speculation importers are taking advantage of six straight weekly gains to pay bills. The Kospi stock index is up 11 percent so far this month, with overseas investors having bought more shares than they sold on all but three days.

“There are not a small amount of import deals coming in,” said Roh Sang Chil, a currency dealer with Kookmin Bank in Seoul. “But the won is supported as foreigners remained net buyers of stocks, supplying the market with foreign exchange.”

The won fell 0.2 percent to 1,334.70 per dollar as of the close in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched a three-month high of 1,298.05 on April 10.

South Korea will probably report on April 24 that the economy shrank 4.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, after contracting 3.4 percent in the prior quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

“Caution should rule the way here and we’re looking for some modest weakness in most Asian currencies in the week and month ahead,” said Patrick Bennett, Asia foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “Investors are starting to say, is this real? Is this a bear-market rally?”

Thai Emergency

Thailand’s baht fell for a second day on concern heightened political tension will undermine the government’s ability to counter an economic slump.

The currency slid to its lowest level in almost a week as Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva kept a state of emergency for a ninth day to quell unrest and global funds sold the nation’s assets. The economy may contract between 4.5 percent and 5 percent this year, deeper than an earlier forecast, the Nation reported last week, citing Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.

“We remain cautious on the baht,” said Craig Chan, a strategist at Nomura Singapore Ltd. “Politics is a big worry. The reality is we haven’t had a stable government for a while. The baht should be a relative underperformer versus some of the risk currencies, like the rupiah and the won.”

The baht weakened 0.3 percent to 35.56 per dollar in Bangkok.

Taiwan’s dollar slid as much as 0.4 percent to NT$33.995 before trading little changed at NT$33.83. The island will report March export orders, indicative of shipments in the following one to three months, on April 23. China, Taiwan’s top trade partner, reported last week that its economy expanded in the first quarter at the slowest pace in a decade.

Elsewhere, the Indonesian rupiah was little changed at 10,730. The Vietnamese dong traded at 17,783 versus 17,782 at the end of last week.

Source