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MW: Commodities' 'blue-light specials' for economic recovery
 
The blue light is flashing in the commodities aisle and the bargains won't last for long.
Back in the heyday of Kmart, shoppers were drawn to that flashing blue light, marking the deal of the hour. That time has come for commodities as signs of an economic recovery, particularly in Asia, highlight potential bargain prices for everything from energy to metals to food staples.
"Right now, the 'blue light special' light is on in the commodities aisle and the only country doing any shopping seems to be China," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Commodities Alert.
"With prices extraordinarily low in almost every commodities sector, dependent countries like the U.S. and others should be snatching up supplies of key commodities hand over fist," he said.

Despite recent rallies, metals, energy and other commodities remain cheap.
The price of copper is up about 65% from its low in December, but it's still 46% lower than its peak in July 2008 of $4 per pound. Crude's up 59% from its low in February, though it's still down 63% from its record level near $150 per barrel seen in July. Cotton's up 58% from a low in November - down 25% from a high of 76 cents per pound in June of last year.
Just like the in-store specials, don't expect the cheaper prices to last long, some analysts say.
"The time of low prices will almost certainly be short-lived for energy, agriculture and soft commodities and in the blink of an eye, as demand returns, we will see that many supply lines have been reduced due to the economic meltdown," said Kerr.
Given that, he expects that prices will see a "dramatic" increase instead of a gradual one.
Revitalized markets
True, not everyone's convinced that global economies are coming out a recession.
Mark T. Williams, a risk management expert and finance professor at Boston University, is one but others, such as Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, see some signs that Asia has begun to recover ahead of the Western economies.
Either way, it's probably a good time to look further ahead.
"Given the continued weakness in our major global banks, once the economy snaps back, there are numerous commodities which track with economic cycles," Williams said.
And no matter what stage global economies are at, there will always be certain goods that consumers cannot do without.
"If Asia truly is in the early stages of an economic recovery, base metals such as copper, aluminum and zinc should see sustained upward price movements," Williams said.
At the same time, "agricultural commodities such as rice, wheat and corn should also see price increases as the economy strengthens," and oil prices will "track with the rebound in the Asian economy," he said.
How much and how quickly commodity prices increase will be "tempered by supply excesses caused by the prolonged global recessions," he said.
And how the biggest three global economies -- the U.S., Japan and China -- fare individually, and as a block, in the coming months will determine the level of upward price pressure for commodities, said Williams.
If Asia comes out the recession before the U.S., the slack in demand will keep the global supply of tradable commodities such as copper, rice, wheat, corn and oil at moderate prices, he said. But "if the big three experience a recovery together, expect tradable commodity prices to be on the rise again."
Lundin points out that China's Purchasing Manager's Index stands above 50, indicating growth and the nation's "quick moves to counter the economic slowdown are now starting to pay dividends."
Source