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BLBG: Natural Gas Rises on Speculation Demand to Recover With Economy
 
Natural gas futures rose to the highest price in three months on speculation demand for energy will begin to rebound as the recession eases.

The economy will return to a growth rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter and gain strength in the final three months of the year, expanding 1.8 percent, according to the median of 61 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. A recovery would spur gas demand from factories and power plants, which account for 58 percent of U.S. consumption.

“We’ve gone through the worst of it and the industrial sector has turned the corner,” said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. “Much of the contraction in the economy has been inventory liquidation, which means the industrial sector at some point will be forced to replenish them.”

Natural gas for June delivery rose 16.2 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $4.464 million British thermal units at 9:13 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas has gained 41 percent since reaching $3.155 on April 27, its lowest price since September 2002. Futures earlier reached $4.499, the highest since Feb. 13.

“We put in a bottom at $3.15 and from here the move to $5 for gas is within days,” said Jarvis, who on May 4 forecast natural gas would break through $4.

Crude oil also jumped on speculation demand will pick up as the world economy shakes off the worst slump since the Great Depression. Oil for June delivery advanced 90 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $59.40 a barrel after touching $60 for the first time in six months.

Gas has fallen 67 percent since reaching a 2008 high of $13.694 per million Btu on July 2 as plants were idled because of sliding demand. The U.S. economy shrank 6.1 percent in the first quarter and 6.3 percent in the final three months of 2008, cutting industrial gas consumption.

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