BLBG: Oil to Return to $110 by 2015 on Economic Rebound, U.S. Says
Oil prices will return to $110 a barrel by 2015 as a rebound in economic growth worldwide boosts consumption, a U.S. Energy Department bureau said.
Prices, which rose to a six-month high of $62.45 yesterday in New York Mercantile Exchange trading, will continue climbing past 2015 to $130 by 2030, as India, China and other developing nations use more oil, the Energy Information Administration said today in its annual International Energy Outlook report.
Oil prices have tumbled from an all-time record $147.27 a barrel in July as industries and consumers pulled back after credit markets froze and the global economy fell into its first recession since World War II. Energy demand will remain weak “in the near term” until the global economy begins to rebound, which may happen as early as next year, the agency said.
“With economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession,” the agency said in a statement.
In last year’s International Energy Outlook, the agency projected oil would fall to $70 a barrel by 2015, partly because record prices would drive investment in new production.
World energy consumption is now likely to rise 44 percent by 2030 from 2006, the agency said. Demand in developing countries will increase 73 percent. Growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations will be 15 percent.
Taking into account oil market volatility, the report includes a “high price” projection of $200 a barrel by 2030 and a low price projection of $50 per barrel.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Global natural gas consumption will rise to 153 trillion cubic feet in 2030, from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2006, the department said.
Coal demand will rise to 190 quadrillion British thermal units in 2030, from 127 quadrillion in 2006, if national policies are not in place to limit greenhouse gas emissions, a summary of the report said.
World carbon dioxide emissions will rise to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 from 29 billion in 2006, and will reach 40.4 billion in 2030, a 39 percent increase, the agency said.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee approved legislation May 21 that would aim to cut U.S. emissions 17 percent by 2020. The bill must still be voted on by both full chambers of Congress.
