AFP: OIL FUTURES: Crude Lower On Dollar Ahead Of Inventory Data
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures fell back below $68 a barrel Wednesday, pressured by a modest rebound in the dollar and as participants waited for weekly U.S. government oil inventory data.
After seven days of gains, that have brought crude close to $70 a barrel, traders were cautious that Wednesday's Energy Information Administration data could show crude oil stocks fell less than expected last week, a possible trigger for a reassessment of the fundamental justification for crude's recent rally.
But with the crude price largely having tracked wider financial markets ahead of near-term fundamentals in recent weeks, the primary focus would likely remain on equities and the performance of the greenback.
"It's all about the dollar at the moment," a London-based crude oil trader said. "At the moment the market is not really paying much attention to what the (EIA) numbers come out like. It's more about inflation expectations, dollar weakness and equities. Oil fundamentals are on the sidelines."
Weakness in the dollar - which hit a five-month low against the euro before rebounding Wednesday - has prompted investors to look at crude in search of protection from the currency's fall, and better returns.
At 1146 GMT, the front-month July Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was down 47 cents at $67.70 a barrel.
The front-month July light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 63 cents lower at $67.92 a barrel.
The ICE's gasoil contract for June delivery was down $5.50 at $551.00 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for July delivery was down 87 points at 191.65 cents a gallon.
Crude's rate of ascent slowed Tuesday as Nymex front-month crude prices broke through $69 a barrel for the first time in seven months. It prompted suggestions that the market might require more concrete evidence of increased demand, reductions in inventories or a recovery in the global economy, if it is to hurdle the psychologically-important $70 a barrel mark.
"Traders seem to be thinking hard about the fundamentals as we approach $70 a barrel," said Peter Beutel, president at trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover. "It is one thing to rally prices above $40, $50 and apparently even $60 without fundamental support, but $70 and $80 may be much tougher nuts to crack."
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average expect EIA data due 1430 GMT Wednesday will show U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels last week. However, some market participants were reassessing their expectations Wednesday after separate American Petroleum Institute readings out late Tuesday showed a smaller decline at 800,000 barrels.
Traders are also likely to keenly watch gasoline inventories for any hints that the U.S. summer driving season has boosted gasoline demand. Expectations for a boost from summer driving contributed to crude's recent 2009 highs entering the peak demand period, but analysts expect to see gasoline stocks rising by 100,000 barrels last week, on par with the API's figures Tuesday.
With crude and other financial markets having benefitted from a recent increase in risk appetite - stemming from hopes that the global economic downturn has bottomed ahead of recovery - a series of macroeconomic data readings due over the remainder of the week could be instrumental in dictating crude's path. Data on U.S. jobless numbers top the list with May U.S. non-farm payroll readings published Friday. A precursor in the shape of the ADP national employment report is due 1215 GMT Wednesday.
"This is a big week for finding out just how green those green shoots of recovery are," said James Hughes analyst at CMC Markets in London. "There's a lot that's going to be told on how much better things are getting, if at all. A better number in payrolls could spell $70 a barrel."