June 17 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S. probably rose in May for the first time in three months, led by rising fuel costs, economists said before a report today. The 0.3 percent gain in the consumer price index would follow no change in April, according to the median forecast of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Excluding food and energy, prices likely climbed 0.1 percent after increasing 0.3 percent a month earlier. Higher commodity prices, including gasoline, will probably restrain Americans’ discretionary spending at a time when the economy is showing signs of stabilizing. The lack of sustained gains in sales is one reason companies are finding it difficult to pass increasing costs on to customers. “Excluding oil, there’s no price pressure,” said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. “The consumer isn’t willing or able to absorb an increase in prices.” The Labor Department is scheduled to release the price report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg News survey ranged from a 0.1 percent drop to a 0.6 percent increase. Forecasts for prices excluding food and energy, known as the core rate, ranged from a 0.2 percent drop to a 0.2 percent gain. A separate report at the same time my show the U.S. deficit on its current account, the broadest measure of international transfers because it includes investment income and government payments, narrowed to $85 billion in the first quarter, the smallest in almost 10 years, according to a Bloomberg survey. Fuel Costs The increase in the cost of living last month was probably led by energy costs that have continued to climb this month. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at the pump is up 65 percent this year, reaching an almost eight-month high of $2.67 on June 15, according to data from AAA. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, this week dismissed concern that the central bank’s record purchases of assets will cause inflation to soar. Fisher, who describes himself as among the most aggressive inflation fighters on the Federal Open Market Committee, said it’s inappropriate to be overly concerned on price pressures now because of the amount of “slack” in the economy. Concern over the amount of money the Fed has pumped into financial markets and the size of upcoming government securities auctions to pay for stimulus efforts has caused interest rates on Treasuries to shoot higher in recent weeks. Rates Jump The yield on the benchmark 10-year note reached as high as 3.95 percent at the close on June 10, after being as low as 2.54 percent on March 18, the day the Fed announced it would buy Treasury securities in a bid to push borrowing costs down. Fed policy makers meet to discuss the direction of interest rates next week. The CPI is the broadest of the three monthly price gauges from Labor because it includes goods and services. The cost of goods imported into the U.S. rose 1.3 percent in May, the government reported last week. Wholesale prices increased a smaller-than-anticipated 0.2 percent, the department said yesterday. Chrysler LLC, seeking to shrink inventory while in bankruptcy, began offering five-year, no-interest loans on some models this month. The financing, announced June 3, runs through July 1 and is an alternative to rebates of as much as $6,000 for consumers who buy through certain credit unions and already own a Chrysler vehicle. The cash option was put in place last month. Macy’s Inc., Dillard’s Inc. and Saks Inc. are among merchants suffering declines in sales as rising unemployment prompts consumers to save more. Saks, based in New York, has cut 1,100 jobs in recent months and said it would reduce merchandise orders 20 percent this year. Cincinnati-based Macy’s has slashed prices to clear inventories.

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