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BLBG: Copper Advances in London Trading, Buoyed by Dollar’s Decline
 
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose in London, after dropping the most in almost five months yesterday, as a weaker dollar made metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against six monies, fell as much as 0.4 percent. Copper is being driven by the dollar for now, Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole SA’s Calyon unit in London, said by phone. He predicted lower prices for industrial metals, citing skepticism about the potential for a global economic rebound and demand from China.

“I sense disillusionment over the green shoots of recovery and concerns that China’s growth is now slowing,” he said.

Copper for three-month delivery rose as much as $48, or 1 percent, to $4,809 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. The contract was at $4,790 at 11:26 a.m. local time. Copper for September delivery gained 1.4 percent to $2.1735 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.

Metals slid yesterday as the World Bank said a contraction this year by the global economy will be more severe than it had previously forecast. The LME Index of the six base metals traded on the exchange declined 5.4 percent, the most since Jan. 27, and has slid more than 10 percent from this year’s peak.

“We are probably a bit too high, given the demand and supply fundamentals that we are seeing,” Bhar said. Copper probably will fall in the third quarter before rebounding in the following three months, according to the analyst, who advised buying the metal when prices dip.

$4,000 a Ton

“I don’t really see a collapse in prices much below the $4,000 level” in the next quarter, he said.

The LME index had jumped 48 percent in 2009 when it peaked on June 11, recovering from a 49 percent plunge last year as the world economy entered its deepest recession since World War II. Three-month copper declined 5.4 percent yesterday, the most since Jan. 27 based on closing prices.

Copper, used in pipes and electrical wiring, has added 56 percent this year on the LME, mainly because of buying from China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal. The Asian nation accounted for 38 percent of global copper demand in the first quarter, 11 percentage points more than a year earlier, Barclays Capital estimates.

Chinese buying is expected to slow in the third quarter after the country’s copper imports climbed to a record in May. Imports may drop to about 300,000 tons in the next quarter, said Yoshihiro Nishiyama, marketing director at Pan Pacific Copper Co., Japan’s biggest smelter of the metal.

Output Lags Demand

Imports of copper into China were 748,281 tons in the first quarter and totaled 655,177 tons in April and May, according to customs figures.

Global copper production lagged demand by 49,000 metric tons in March, mostly because of growth in China, the International Copper Study Group said yesterday.

LME canceled warrants for copper, reflecting metal earmarked for delivery out of warehouses, accounted for 6.4 percent of total stockpiles today, down from 21 percent in early May. Still, inventories in warehouses monitored by the London bourse have shrunk 19 percent this year.

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, nickel was unchanged at $14,500 a ton. World production outpaced demand in April, the International Nickel Study Group said. Primary nickel production was 109,400 tons, compared with demand of 95,600 tons, it said yesterday.

Aluminum rose 1.3 percent to $1,594 a ton, and lead increased 1.4 percent to $1,625 a ton. Zinc gained 1.4 percent to $1,523 a ton as tin rose 0.4 percent to $14,450 a ton.

Source