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WSJ: OIL FUTURES Crude Inches Higher;Fed Meet Keeps Tone Cautious
 
By Reza Amanat
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crude futures are drifting higher Tuesday, with Nymex light, sweet crude edging above $80 a barrel, but prices continue to move in a tight range as the market adopts a cautious tone ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest-rate meeting later in the day.

Traders will also take note of developments in Vienna, as oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries gather there for the group's meeting Wednesday.

At 1053 GMT, the front-month April Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was 21 cents higher at $78.10 a barrel.

The front-month April contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 23 cents higher at $80.03 a barrel.

The ICE's gasoil contract for April delivery was $7.25 up at $656.50 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for April delivery was 82 cents higher at $2.2310 a gallon.

Traders will be anxious to find out whether the U.S. intends to ease back its fiscal stimulus program and raise interest rates when the Fed meets later Tuesday to discuss interest-rate policy. Although market participants don't expect the meeting to result in a change in interest rates, analysts note that the Fed statement could feed into recent dollar strength. Oil tends to fall on a stronger greenback as it makes the dollar-denominated commodity more expensive to purchase by other currency holders.

"Although the Fed is not expected to move on rates, the possibility that the central bank could surprise on policy wording should leave an upward bias on the dollar relatively intact as we go into the decision," said Edward Meir, senior commodity analyst of MF Global.

The meeting of OPEC member states in Vienna Wednesday is likely to demand attention from the crude market despite the fact that comments by officials have already put the outcome beyond doubt.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said late Monday he saw no need for OPEC to change its formal oil-production target when it meets Wednesday. He also added Tuesday that OPEC wouldn't allow the oil market to get tight to the point where it puts too much upward pressure on prices.

Analysts said OPEC members are likely to concentrate on compliance to already agreed cuts, which has steadily fallen to just 56% in February, according to the International Energy Agency.

Looking ahead, traders will watch for the first of this week's U.S. oil inventory data when the American Petroleum Institute releases its numbers at 2030 GMT Tuesday ahead of figures from the Department of Energy Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires are expecting a build of around 400,000 barrels in crude stocks. Gasoline inventories are seen unchanged, while distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, are expected to decline 800,000 barrels. Refinery processing rates are seen rising 0.2 of a percentage point to 80.9% of total capacity.

-By Reza Amanat, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9487; reza.amanat@dowjones.com (Spencer Swartz in Vienna contributed to this report.)

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