BLBG: Oil Falls for Third Day on Concern Demand Recovery May Stall
By Gavin Evans and Yee Kai Pin
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day in New York amid concern governments around the world may follow India in raising interest rates, damping the recovery in global fuel demand.
Oil extended losses from March 19 when energy, metals and stocks dropped after India unexpectedly raised rates, sending the dollar higher. A report tomorrow may show existing home sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, fell to an eight-month low in February, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
India’s move “is raising some concern that the unwinding of stimulus measures might put a dent in overall global economic activity this year,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “It’s going to either take some time or a string of pretty positive economic data to take us out of this range.”
Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 63 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $80.05 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile exchange. It was at $80.09 at 3:54 p.m. Singapore time.
The contract, which expires today, dropped 1.9 percent to $80.68 on March 19, marking a second weekly decline. The more actively traded May contract declined as much as 0.8 percent today to $80.32.
The dollar rose against all 16 of its major counterparts, reducing the investment appeal of commodities. The U.S. currency traded near a three-week high versus the euro, reaching $1.3498.
‘Major Resistance’
“The dollar is nearing major resistance, and it will break out or fail,” Peter Beutel, president of energy adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut, said today in a note. “That could determine trends nearby.”
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their bets on rising oil prices for a fifth week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Speculative net-long positions, the difference between orders to buy and sell oil, rose 14 percent to 124,143 contracts in the week ended March 16, the commission said March 19.
“The recovery story that really began a year ago is still in place, but the dollar rallying certainly presented a headwind for a lot of commodity prices,” said CWA’s Hassall. “In the broad scheme of things, global oil consumption growth should turn positive this year for the first time in three years. So I think, maybe in the long-run, the bias in oil prices is upward.”
Brent crude for May settlement fell as much as 57 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $79.31 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract was at $79.43 at 3:58 p.m. Singapore time.
To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net; Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net