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COM: Crude expected to trade down on strong dollar
 
By Leon Westgate
While crude oil remains range bound, this morning’s weakness in the euro has seen prices come back under pressure, with front month WTI trading below $81/bbl.

As noted yesterday, while non-OECD product demand is recovering, OECD demand is lagging behind. Japanese crude oil imports fell 5.7% y-o-y in February to around 4.01 million bbl/day, with the Federation of Electric Power companies also noting that the country’s 10 regional power suppliers cut crude and fuel oil consumption by 25% compared to this time last year.

Instead Japan has shifted towards LNG and Coal due to a combination of price and pollution factors. Imports of LNG climbed 15% o just over 6 million tonnes while coal imports climbed 14% in February to 14.37 Mt.

This afternoon’s DOE inventory report is expected to show another increase in Crude Oil Inventories, up 1.65 million barrels, though both Gasoline and Distillate stocks are expected to show further inventory draws, down 1.5 million and 0.985 million barrels respectively.

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Nearby coal prices climbed a little yesterday, helped by fresh buying and firmer implied freight. API2 for Q2-10 climbed $0.40 to $74.10/mt though the back end of the curve came under a bit of pressure with both Q3-11 and Q4-11 falling $0.20/mt.

Meanwhile, BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance has declared force majeure for some shipments from its Hay Point coal terminal, with damage assessments suggesting the port will be out of action for up to 6 weeks following after incurring damage from Cyclone Ului. The port, with a capacity of 44 mtpy of steelmaking coal, has been closed since March 11th.
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