DY: Crude Oil Technical Positioning Points to Losses Ahead
Crude oil technical positioning is hinting that a bearish reversal is ahead while gold and silver look to upcoming commentary from Federal Reserve officials for direction cues.
Commodities - Energy
Crude Oil Technical Positioning Points to Losses Ahead
Crude Oil (WTI) $85.40 -$0.48 -0.56%
Prices have put in an Evening Star bearish reversal candlestick formation below resistance at the $87 figure, with a turn lower opening the door for a move to support at $83.19. Risk trends remain significant, with the 21-day percent-change correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index at 0.79. This bolsters the case for a bearish scenario as European shares trade lower amid renewed concerns about Greece after reports that EZ lenders including Commerzbank are withdrawing credit lines to the country while depositors have pulled close to 10 billion euro out of the nation’s financial institutions. Meanwhile, US equity index futures are tracking down 0.4 percent ahead of the opening bell on Wall St. Weekly US jobless claims figures and a series of scheduled speeches from Fed officials including Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chairman Kohn headline the economic calendar.
Gold, Silver Look to Fed Commentary as Prices Find Resistance
Gold $1146.95 -$2.40 -0.21%
Prices have found resistance at the top of a rising channel after breaking horizontal resistance at $1145.13. With gold’s position as the benchmark inflation hedge still the dominant driver of price action, upcoming speeches by a variety of Fed officials including Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chairman Kohn could prove market-moving. Yesterday, Bernanke threw out yet more clues that the US central bank was inching closer to a rate increase, saying tightening could come even as economic data remains mixed and warning that benchmark borrowing costs as much 100bps above current levels would be considered “highly accommodative”. Further such rhetoric may trim investors’ price growth expectations and weigh on the yellow metal.
Silver $18.08 -$0.09 -0.51%
Prices are testing resistance at the $18.25 level, with a break higher leaving the door open for a challenge of the $19 figure. As with gold, the impact of Fed commentary on the outlook for US interest rates is paramount in the near term.
