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BLBG: Euro Strengthens Before Greece Auctions $1.6 Billion of Debt
 
By Paul Dobson

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose against 11 of its 16 most-traded counterparts as Greece prepared to auction 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) of debt in a sale that may underscore confidence in a European bailout for the nation.

The single currency traded near its highest level against the dollar in more than three weeks before the sale, the first since European leaders pledged at the weekend to provide Greece with as much as 45 billion euros of loans at below-market rates if needed. Mounting concern that Greece will be unable to finance a budget deficit that is more than four times the European Union’s limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product drove the euro almost 5 percent lower this year through April 9, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.

“This event, which normally isn’t that important, has taken on extra meaning,” said Stuart Bennett, a senior foreign- exchange strategist at Credit Agricole SA in London. “If it goes badly then it will be deemed another reason to pull the euro back. If it goes well then the euro should consolidate around these levels.”

The euro traded at $1.3590 as of 9:44 a.m. in London, from $1.3592 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.3692, the highest level since March 18. It traded at 126.52 yen, from 126.74 yen yesterday.

Euro-region finance ministers said on April 11 they would offer Greece as much as 30 billion euros in three-year loans in 2010 at about 5 percent. Another 15 billion euros would be provided by the International Monetary Fund. The yield on the 10-year Greek bond fell 5 basis points today to 6.76 percent after dropping 41 points yesterday.

Financing Needs

Prime Minister George Papandreou needs to raise 11.6 billion euros by the end of May to cover maturing debt, with another 20 billion euros required by year-end to pay interest and finance this year’s deficit. Last week the government estimated its 2009 shortfall to be 12.9 percent of gross domestic product, the biggest in the euro’s history. The previous forecast was 12.7 percent.

“As more details of the Eurogroup rescue package have been hammered out and the implementation risk has declined markedly, the default risk for this maturity has fallen considerably,” a Commerzbank AG team of currency strategists led by Frankfurt- based Ulrich Leuchtmann said in research a note today. “The auction will probably go quite well. Such an outcome might support the euro.”

China Revaluation Survey

China may allow the yuan to appreciate by June 30 to curb inflation while avoiding a one-time jump in value that might endanger export jobs, a survey of analysts showed.

Twelve of 19 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg said the central bank will allow the currency to float more freely this quarter, five expect it to happen by Sept. 30, and the rest see the move by year-end. Eleven rule out a one-off revaluation, including state-owned Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. Fifteen predict a wider daily trading range.

China, which relies on manufacturers to help create jobs for 230 million migrant workers, will safeguard “its own economic and social development needs” when deciding exchange- rate policy, President Hu Jintao said in Washington yesterday. Allowing the currency to strengthen would temper inflation after a 17 percent surge in import prices in March from a year earlier helped cause China’s first trade deficit since 2004.

The Australian dollar declined for a second day versus the U.S. currency on prospects the Reserve Bank of Australia will curb interest-rate increases.

Aussie Declines

The Aussie fell against 14 of its 16 major counterparts after central bank Assistant Governor Guy Debelle said the benchmark interest rate was “not far” from average levels.

“The markets trimmed back their expectations of hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia,” said Tim Kelleher, vice- president of institutional banking and markets in Auckland at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “With the market still very long Aussie dollar, the Debelle comments may have been seen as an opportunity to take some profit.”

Swaps traders are betting the RBA will raise its target rate by 86 basis points over the next 12 months, down from bets for a 91 basis points increase yesterday, a Credit Suisse AG index shows.

The Aussie fell 0.2 percent to 92.55 U.S. cents. It slipped 0.4 percent to 86.15 yen.

-- With assistance from Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo and Ron Harui in Singapore. Editor: Justin Carrigan

To contact the reporters on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net

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