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BLBG: Fed’s New York Manufacturing Index Rises More Than Forecast
 
By Bob Willis

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in April at a faster pace than anticipated, indicating factories will remain at the forefront of the U.S. expansion.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index climbed to 31.9, a ninth consecutive month of growth, from 22.9 in March. Readings greater than zero signal gains in the so-called Empire State Index that covers New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.

Companies are boosting output to meet increased demand at home and abroad and to replenish inventories that were drawn down by a record amount last year. The recovery is broadening out beyond manufacturing, leading to gains in jobs and consumer spending.

“We’re seeing manufacturing actually lead the recovery over the past few months,” Kim Whelan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities Inc. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “With inventories at such low levels, manufacturers have started to respond to increased demand.”

Economists forecast the New York Fed’s index would increase to 24, according to the median of 51 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 16 to 29.2. Manufacturers account for 6 percent of New York’s economy.

The New York Fed’s gauge of new factory orders increased to 29.5 this month from 25.4 in March. A measure of shipments rose to 32.1 from 25.6.

More Inventories

The Fed’s inventory index climbed to 11.4 from 4.9, showing factories are adding to stockpiles.

The employment measure jumped to 20.3, the highest level in four years, from 12.4 last month. Factories added 17,000 workers to payrolls in March after a 6,000 gain a month earlier, according to Labor Department data released April 2.

Today’s report showed an index of prices paid advanced to 41.8 this month from 29.6, while prices received decreased to 6.3 from 8.6.

Factory executives in the New York Fed’s district were more optimistic about the future. The gauge measuring the outlook six months ahead climbed to 55.7 from 54.3 in March.

Factory output has been rising nationally.

Production at factories, mines and utilities probably rose 0.7 percent in March after a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the Fed will report today at 9:15 a.m. That would be the ninth consecutive gain.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge rose to 59.6 in March, the highest level since July 2004, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said on April 1.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of April forecast growth will average 3 percent this year following a 2.4 percent contraction last year.
Source